Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expects Circle to reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030. The projection is grounded in stablecoin adoption trends and market structure assumptions, coinciding with U.S. lawmakers debating stablecoin rules under the CLARITY Act.
Hougan ties Circle’s valuation to the broader stablecoin market expansion, citing a Citigroup base-case projection that the sector could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030.
Revenue Relies on USDC Reserves
He notes that demand for stablecoins continues to come from payments, settlements, and transfers, with yield incentives not yet driving primary adoption. Circle’s USDC currently holds around 25% of global stablecoin supply, and over 80% in regulated onshore markets, according to Hougan.
The company earns income from U.S. Treasury yields backing its near-$80 billion USDC reserves, yielding roughly 4%. However, distribution deals — including revenue sharing with Coinbase — lower Circle’s effective take rate to about 1.6%. Hougan models competition further compressing margins, assuming a long-term take rate of 0.8%.
CLARITY Act Impact and Stock Volatility
Under these assumptions, Hougan estimates Circle could generate $3.8 billion in revenue by 2030, with net income around $2.7 billion. He applies a standard market multiple to arrive at a $75 billion valuation — above Circle’s current valuation and higher than last week’s market concerns over yield restrictions in the CLARITY Act.
Shares fell 20% earlier this week after CLARITY Act yield discussions, then recovered about 2%. Hougan focuses on long-term adoption trends rather than short-term price moves. He also points to Circle’s expanding role in regulated financial systems and its development of non-interest revenue streams.