Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said on Aug. 11 that investors are underestimating Circle as the stablecoin market expands toward trillions of dollars. He projected the market would grow from roughly $300 billion today to between $3 trillion and $5 trillion.
Rasmussen argued that as the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework takes shape, Circle is well positioned thanks to its existing market share. The opportunity goes beyond earning more reserve income as stablecoin volumes grow, he said. Circle is also building payment infrastructure for a stablecoin-based financial system — a business he described as "severely undervalued" by the market.
"Five years from now, Circle will be not only a stablecoin giant but also a payments giant," Rasmussen said. He drew a comparison between Circle's potential growth path and global payment companies such as Visa and Mastercard.
Traditional institutions — banks and consumer businesses — are rolling out their own stablecoins. Rasmussen doesn't see that as a major threat to Circle. His view: overall market growth may be fast enough for Circle to keep expanding even as competitors multiply. Execution during the development of a regulated stablecoin market will be the decisive factor.
Rasmussen also said Circle's Arc blockchain will test whether the company can move beyond issuance and into payment infrastructure. Over the coming year, the key question is whether Arc gains adoption and connects with the traditional financial system, and how Circle's business model evolves as stablecoins and new infrastructure grow.