Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin could attract trillions of dollars in institutional money over the next decade, and that a long-term price of $1.3 million per coin by 2035 is possible if large asset owners make even a small allocation.
Speaking to CoinDesk, Hougan said the thesis rests on a simple assumption: major global institutions would need to place just 1% of their portfolios into Bitcoin.
A 1% allocation is central to the $1.3 million case
Hougan estimated that pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and central banks together control about $100 trillion to $200 trillion in assets. If those groups allocated only 1% to Bitcoin, he said, the capital moving into the asset would be enough to support his long-term target.
He framed the argument around Bitcoin’s competition with gold for store-of-value demand. In his interview with CoinDesk, Hougan said gold’s market capitalization was about $2 trillion when gold ETFs launched in 2004 and has since grown to roughly $30 trillion. Over the past 20 years, he said, gold has posted average annual market cap growth of around 13%.
If the store-of-value market keeps expanding at that rate over the next decade, Hougan argued, Bitcoin would not need to fully displace gold. He said Bitcoin reaching a 25% share of that market would imply a price of $1.3 million per coin.
Why he views the common gold-substitution model as too conservative
Hougan contrasted his view with a popular market framework that assumes Bitcoin replaces 50% of gold, producing a price estimate of about $715,000 per coin. He said that approach is too conservative because it treats the store-of-value market too narrowly. In his view, the market itself is still expanding, which means Bitcoin only needs to take a portion of that growth rather than absorb gold’s share outright.
He says the first institutional wave is already showing up
Hougan said financial advisors and family offices are likely to be the first professional investors to build sizable Bitcoin allocations. He added that signs of that shift are already visible.
He pointed to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission 13F filings, the quarterly disclosures used by large investment managers, saying those filings already show growing spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. He also said large wealth management firms such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have started making Bitcoin easier for clients to access.
“This is a process that will take more than 10 years,” Hougan said.
Strategy may keep buying, but at a slower pace
Hougan also addressed Strategy, long seen as the largest corporate buyer of Bitcoin. He noted that the company now holds 842,138 BTC, but said it is no longer the main driver of Bitcoin demand.
According to Hougan, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation machine relied on two forms of what he called capital markets mispricing. First, investors once treated Strategy stock as one of the few public-market ways to gain crypto exposure, allowing the company to issue new shares at a premium to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Second, the company could raise more money through convertible debt and preferred stock offerings, then deploy those funds into additional Bitcoin purchases.
Hougan said both advantages have weakened. After the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, investors gained a more direct route to Bitcoin exposure, making it harder for Strategy to sustain a premium. He also said the company has already issued debt up to the level the market is willing to absorb.
“The easy accumulation path has been exhausted,” Hougan said. He added that Strategy is still likely to keep buying Bitcoin, but at a slower rate and in a manner more closely tied to price cycles.
His message to long-term investors
Hougan said long-term investors should spend less time worrying about whether Bitcoin has found a local bottom and more time asking whether the top is already in.
He said crypto assets grew from zero to a $2 trillion market largely on retail participation. If the market is to move from $2 trillion to $20 trillion, he said, institutional capital will have to lead that next phase. In his view, that process has only just begun.