Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the latest Bitcoin decline is better explained by structural selling pressure than by the market rumors that keep circling around large trading firms. Claims have shifted from Binance to Wintermute, then to an unnamed offshore macro fund, and now to Jane Street. Hougan argued that the names change, but the evidence does not. In his view, the heavier force has been long-term holders reducing spot Bitcoin exposure while leveraged positions are being unwound, creating sustained downside pressure.
Three forces behind the current slide
Hougan pointed to three main drivers: the four-year market cycle theory, growing concern over quantum computing, and capital rotating out of crypto and into AI startups. That framing puts the focus on broader investor behavior rather than a single actor pressing the market lower. The question, in his telling, is less about who sold at a certain hour and more about why large pools of capital have become less willing to hold risk.
Quantum risk has become one of the clearest dividing lines among institutional investors. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor has dismissed those fears as overstated, but others have taken a more guarded stance. Canadian entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary said major institutions often limit Bitcoin exposure to around 3% while waiting for an industry-wide answer to potential quantum threats. Jefferies global head of equity strategy Christopher Wood has also reduced the firm’s Bitcoin holdings for similar reasons.
Bottoming debate and timeline signals
Hougan said most of the recent sell-off may already have run its course and that the market could be in the process of forming a bottom. He compared the current stretch to a classic crypto winter. The latest correction, he said, began in January 2025, and similar downcycles have historically lasted about 13 months. If that pattern holds, the market could be entering a different phase by the end of the year.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo also said the intensity of selling is fading, though he warned that weak liquidity in both spot and futures markets could limit any near-term rebound. Woo expects selling pressure could last through late 2026, with stronger positive sentiment more likely from early 2027. On price levels, he said a typical Bitcoin bear-market bottom has historically been around $45,000. If the global macro backdrop remains stable, support could hold near $30,000, while $16,000 would be a critical line for the long-term trend.
Across these views, the shared conclusion is that the current weakness stems from structural and psychological forces rather than proven manipulation. Rumors remain plentiful. Hard evidence has been scarce, while portfolio cuts, risk controls and thin liquidity continue to offer a more direct explanation for Bitcoin’s slide.