Bloomberg reported that as the U.S. midterm elections draw closer, a group of experienced traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have been seeking an edge through in-person canvassing and voter data analysis. One of them, Douglas Campbell, a former Democratic National Committee economics professor and election model analyst, trades on Kalshi under the username AlexanderHam and has made more than $800,000 in cumulative profit, ranking sixth among the platform’s election traders. Another trader, David Bensoussan, is mainly active on Polymarket under the username Scottilicious and has earned more than $1.5 million in cumulative profit. His position of more than $280,000 is betting that Democrats will win the House, a result that the market currently prices at about 94%. Bloomberg said the use of field research to obtain an information advantage has raised concerns about information asymmetry and insider trading. Polymarket has also opened an investigation this week into suspicious trading during the Israeli election.
According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. midterm elections approach, a group of experienced traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have been looking for an edge through in-person canvassing and voter data analysis.
Among them is Douglas Campbell, a former Democratic National Committee economics professor and election model analyst. Trading on Kalshi under the username AlexanderHam, he has generated more than $800,000 in cumulative profit, making him the platform’s sixth-most profitable election trader.
Another trader, David Bensoussan, is primarily active on Polymarket under the username Scottilicious and has made more than $1.5 million in cumulative profit. More than $280,000 of his position is tied to a bet that Democrats will win the House. The market-implied probability for that outcome has risen to about 94%.
Bloomberg said some traders’ use of field investigations to gain an information advantage has raised concerns about information asymmetry and insider trading. Polymarket has also launched an investigation this week into suspicious trading during the Israeli election.
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