Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has warned that the relative performance of cryptocurrencies versus precious metals has taken a decisive turn lower. A key ratio tracking the two asset classes has broken below a multi-year support level, signaling that bitcoin and other digital assets may continue to lag gold and other hard assets through 2026.
Crypto-to-Metals Ratio Breaks Below 510
McGlone, analyzing the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) relative to the Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex (BCOMAMT), noted that the ratio has slumped below roughly 510. This resistance level dates back to 2018, when the index base started at 100 in 2017. A break below this line suggests the trend could persist throughout 2026, with crypto struggling to regain its relative edge.
Chart Shows Long-Term Structural Shift
According to a chart attached by McGlone, crypto assets peaked in 2025 before quickly retreating, contrasting with the S&P 500's 180-day volatility. Key levels such as 511.05 and 398 are marked, showing the ratio now sits well below previous highs. McGlone emphasizes that crypto's near-unlimited supply, compared to the finite nature of precious metals, is increasingly reflected in relative performance. He likens crypto to a "flock of pigeons"—more volatile and sentiment-driven—while metals are like "fewer pigeons" with greater resilience.
Correction After 2025 Overheating and 2026 Outlook
In recent analyses, McGlone has repeatedly flagged that crypto markets experienced "excessive upside" in 2025, likely leading to a prolonged correction. Although precious metals also face adjustment risks at high prices, their fundamentals remain stronger overall. He urges investors to reassess the relative appeal of crypto versus hard assets when rebalancing portfolios, especially as market volatility may intensify in 2026. Closely monitoring these ratio shifts and macro conditions is key to making prudent decisions.