Brazil moved to block 27 prediction market platforms on the 25th, with the Finance Ministry and telecom regulator Anatel targeting a broad list that includes Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s prediction market operation, and Fanatics Markets. Anatel is handling domain blocking, while financial institutions are coordinating account freezes tied to the affected services.
The legal basis comes from CMN Resolution 5.298, issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council on April 24 and put into effect in early May. The measure redraws the line between what Brazil treats as a financial product and what it now considers gambling activity.
Brazil splits event contracts into two categories
Under the resolution, contracts linked to sports matches, political elections, entertainment programs, and social events are explicitly classified as gambling and can no longer be offered in Brazil. Contracts tied to inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities are still treated as financial products and may continue operating inside a regulated framework.
That distinction is the center of the policy shift. Brazil is not rejecting the idea of prediction markets in full, but it is limiting them to areas that fit within established financial supervision.
Debt concerns cited by Brazilian officials
Dario Durigan, executive secretary of Brazil’s Finance Ministry, said at a press conference at Palácio do Planalto that the government had been monitoring the sector’s evolution in Brazil and described the period from 2018 to 2022 as one marked by a lack of rules and oversight. He framed the crackdown as a response to a long-standing regulatory gap rather than a sudden intervention.
Durigan also said the government is trying to reduce debt levels for households, small and medium-sized businesses, and students, while preventing new forms of harmful indebtedness from emerging. That places consumer risk and debt exposure near the center of the Brazilian case.
B3 offers a regulated path for approved contracts
The blocked list goes beyond the largest international names. It also includes ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange, Stride, and Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred. The scope suggests a system-wide enforcement move rather than a selective action against a handful of firms.
There is still a legal route for some products. Brazil’s exchange B3 has already launched officially approved event contracts tied to economic indicators, including the Ibovespa index, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and even Bitcoin. That leaves room for compliant products, but only where regulators accept the underlying contract as financial in nature.
Europe has imposed similar limits while the US remains divided
Brazil is not alone in tightening access. The report notes that France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Portugal have already blocked or restricted Polymarket, generally on the grounds that it was operating unauthorized gambling-like services.
The United States remains split. At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission backed Kalshi during the Trump administration and said event contracts do not fall under traditional gambling. State authorities have taken a different view: Nevada has formally sued Kalshi, and a Massachusetts judge ordered the company to stop operating sports-related markets. Brazil’s action puts the core question back in focus: whether prediction markets should be regulated as financial instruments or treated as gambling.