Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) points out that Glassnode's BTC seller exhaustion index has entered an extreme territory for the first time in this bear market, suggesting selling pressure has largely faded while the market may be forming a bottoming range. The metric, he explains, triggers only when low volatility and high losses occur together. Looking at past bear markets, every cycle has seen comparable signals, sometimes repeatedly. The first trigger usually points to a bottoming zone rather than an absolute bottom; if prices keep sliding or make new lows while the index refuses to fall further, a second signal may appear — and historically, the second one has carried higher certainty. Murphy believes investors who have already built positions are not wrong, and those waiting for a clearer setup still have a chance to act. But if they keep hesitating even after an obvious extreme signal emerges, they could miss the next move.
Bitcoin's seller exhaustion index has flashed an extreme reading for the first time in the current bear market, according to trader Murphy (@Murphychen888). The indicator, built by Glassnode, suggests selling pressure has entered a zone of exhaustion.
Murphy explained that the metric triggers only when two conditions are met at the same time: low volatility and high losses. Historical data, he said, shows similar patterns in every past bear market, sometimes with more than one trigger. The first signal often points to a bottoming range rather than an absolute low. If prices continue to chop or print new lows while the index fails to fall further, a second signal could form — and historically that second signal has offered higher certainty.
In Murphy's view, investors who have already built positions are not wrong to have done so. Waiting for a clearer setup before adding exposure is also reasonable. But failing to buy after an extreme signal appears could mean missing the next move.
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