BlockBeats said on Sept. 6 that on-chain analyst Murphy had posted an analysis titled "An Unusual Pattern During the Rise: Whales Did Not Use the Opportunity to Sell," arguing that Bitcoin’s latest rally has come with an on-chain capital structure unlike the rebounds seen earlier.
Murphy said the "BTC on-chain accumulation trend score" is a common tool for reading where whale behavior has been headed over the past 30 days—in plain terms, whether big holders have been net buyers or net sellers. When the reading sits near 1, shown by the black line on the chart, it is generally taken to mean entities holding thousands or even tens of thousands of BTC are accumulating. When it drops near 0, shown by the yellow line, there are usually two explanations: whales are distributing, or they are simply not doing much.
Earlier rallies this year came alongside net whale selling
Murphy said that when Bitcoin climbed toward $97,000 in January and $82,000 in May this year, the chart line was yellow both times. His take: large holders were net reducing positions even as the rebound was unfolding.
He called that pattern the typical structure of a bear-market rally. Price gets pushed up by derivatives short covering and short-term money. Then big holders sell into the strength. Simple. In that kind of move, the rally does not have much staying power, and the rebound eventually runs out.
The latest move from $60,000 to $80,000 came with net whale buying
Murphy said the current rally does not look the same. During Bitcoin’s move from $60,000 to $80,000, the chart line turned black, which he said indicates whales were net buyers over the past 30 days.
Out of the three rebounds, he said this is the first time rising prices have come together with accumulation by large holders. But he also said whale accumulation does not automatically mean the bottom is in, and it does not guarantee a trend reversal. Even so, he argued that the structure of this leg higher looks healthier.
According to Murphy, a setup where price rises while large holders keep accumulating is usually seen during the main advancing phase of a bull market.
The price path may resemble January 2023, but the funding structure does not
Murphy also compared the current move with the bottoming stretch of the last bear market. He said the earlier cycle did not have this same structure. After the FTX collapse in November 2022, the chart turned dark around the $16,000 area, but switched back to yellow during the rally in January 2023.
In his view, that means large holders did buy near the bottom, but then used the following rally to lock in floating profits—or at the very least, they stopped adding to positions.
As for why Bitcoin still rose in January 2023, Murphy said three forces were probably behind it:
- derivatives short covering;
- a shift in macro expectations;
- and price elasticity magnified by liquidity exhaustion after FTX.
He added that accumulation by smaller holders would not show up in this chart.
So on that basis, Murphy said January 2023 and August 2026 may look similar if you only look at the price path, but their on-chain capital structures are fundamentally different.
The metric cannot predict direction by itself
Murphy said the indicator should not be used on its own to decide whether Bitcoin will rise or fall next. But it can still help judge whether a rally is structurally healthy, and that gives traders a useful reference for trend formation and confidence.