Bitcoin2026-10-04 02:13:54Murphy says rising BTC chip concentration points to bigger volatility in the next one to two monthsAnalyst Murphy said Bitcoin has posted consecutive daily doji candles, with rare upper and lower wick swings showing up on the chart. He pointed to data showing that on Aug. 1, two chip distribution bars formed in the $62,000-$63,000 range, totaling about 1.68 million BTC, with chip concentration at 12.9%. On Oct. 3, another two prominent bars appeared in the $83,000-$84,000 range, totaling about 1.52 million BTC, while concentration had risen to 12%. Murphy said the upper warning zone is now close. He also noted that after a similar data combination appeared on Aug. 1, BTC moved from $60,000 to $80,000 in just 17 days. In his view, heavier chip accumulation and rising concentration do not point to a confirmed direction on their own, but they do suggest that the probability of amplified volatility is increasing. He expects the market could see a major move within as little as one month, or as long as two months.20
Bitcoin2026-09-13 09:24:36Murphy says Bitcoin buyers from the past 3 to 6 months are leaning toward longer-term tradesAnalyst Murphy said on Sept. 13 that on-chain data offers a relatively clear view of investor behavior in the current market phase. According to his reading, investors who bought BTC in the past three to six months have realized very little profit, suggesting that many of those who entered near the lower end of the range are not eager to take gains at current prices. He described this group as the short-term holders closest to long-term holders, with many of those still holding now likely aiming for medium- to long-term trades. Murphy also said the group that bought BTC in the past six to 12 months is showing substantial unrealized losses, covering much of the supply accumulated during the bear market. In his view, many of these long-term holders are not firm conviction holders but became long-term holders passively after falling into the red, making them a less stable cohort during sharp declines or rebounds. He added that BTC faces resistance near $82,000. Murphy said short-term holder supply is concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000, while the main long-term holder cost basis cluster sits around $81,000 to $82,000, creating two layers of selling pressure.800
Bitcoin2026-09-11 17:08:13Analyst says Bitcoin faces layered selling pressure near $82,000Analyst Murphy said Bitcoin’s difficulty in breaking above $82,000 may be explained by its holder distribution. Short-term holder (STH) supply is concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000, meaning a move above $82,000 would leave that group broadly in profit and could trigger profit-taking from short-term speculative capital. Long-term holder (LTH) supply is spread across the full price range, but its biggest concentration sits around $81,000 to $82,000, where some holders who were previously trapped may choose to exit near breakeven. Murphy also said super whales holding more than 100,000 BTC are largely clustered between $78,000 and $82,000, aside from two concentration points near $40,000. Based on that structure, he said Bitcoin does face short-term resistance at $82,000, and that the market needs more time to absorb disagreement and available supply before any clean breakout can develop.1060
Bitcoin2026-09-06 05:52:19Murphy says BTC’s latest rally looks more like a bull-market impulse, with whales still accumulatingOn-chain analyst Murphy said Bitcoin’s latest advance stands out from earlier rebounds this year because large holders did not use the move to distribute into strength. In an analysis published on Sept. 6, Murphy pointed to the BTC Accumulation Trend Score, a metric used to track whether whales on-chain have been net accumulating or net reducing positions over the past 30 days. He said readings near 1, shown as a black line on the chart, generally indicate accumulation by entities holding thousands or even tens of thousands of BTC, while readings near 0, shown in yellow, can signal either distribution or inactivity. Murphy compared the current move with Bitcoin’s push to $97,000 in January and $82,000 in May, when the chart stayed yellow, suggesting that large holders were net selling as price bounced. He described that setup as a standard bear-market rebound driven by short covering and short-term capital, with whales selling into strength. By contrast, during the latest move from $60,000 to $80,000, the line turned black, indicating net whale buying over the past month. Murphy said this is the first of the three rebounds in which price rose while large holders also increased exposure. He cautioned that accumulation alone does not confirm a bottom or a trend reversal, but said the structure of the rally appears healthier and closer to what is usually seen in a bull market’s main advancing phase.770
BTC2026-08-22 03:46:25Murphy Says This BTC Rally Looks Different as Open Interest FallsChain on-chain data analyst Murphy said this BTC rally looks unusual: futures liquidations hit a record, but open interest fell at the same time. He said the price advance was driven mainly by short stop-losses and forced buybacks rather than fresh leveraged positioning. On Aug. 19-20, exchange spot relative volume reached 2.94, about three times the 30-day average. Murphy said the data points to a possible first sign of spot demand since the bear market began, but not enough to call a trend reversal.1130
Bitcoin2026-08-14 07:12:02Murphy says all BTC bought in 2025 is underwater as turnover nears prior bear-market levelsMurphy’s latest market read argues that every Bitcoin purchased in 2025 is now sitting at a loss, making this cohort a key source of sell-side pressure. According to the analysis, declines in the amount of 2025-acquired BTC — excluding simple wallet transfers — should be treated as loss-taking sales. That supply has fallen to 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from its peak in December last year. Murphy said the drawdown unfolded in two phases: a steep decline before February, followed by a slower but still persistent reduction afterward. He added that holders who bought between 2022 and 2024 and are still in profit have largely passed the sharpest stage of distribution, with their coin count no longer changing much even if prices fall further. Murphy also compared the current cycle with the last two bear markets. At the 2022 bear-market bottom, coins bought near the 2021 highs had fallen 51%, while the comparable drawdown at the 2018 bottom was 62% for coins bought near the 2017 top. In Murphy’s personal view, the current cycle’s bottom may see a decline of 50% to 60%, versus about 41% now.1360
Bitcoin2026-08-14 05:49:00Bitcoin Chips Bought in 2025 Down 41.5%: Analyst Sees Bear Market Bottom at 50%-60%Analyst Murphy published a note on Aug 14 arguing that bitcoin bought in 2025 and still held is now underwater as a whole. The remaining supply from that year stands at 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from the peak in December. The decline was rapid before February and has since moderated but continues to follow a visible slope. Murphy describes this cohort as possibly the largest supply source in the current market. In comparison, bitcoin bought in 2022, 2023 and 2024 that remains in profit has already moved past the fast-reduction phase. Longer holding periods are associated with smaller decreases in the amount of coins. Murphy expects that even further price drops may not trigger large moves from these older holders. He puts the potential bottom decline of the current bear market at 50% to 60%, with the present drawdown at 41%. Notably, this estimate does not account for bitcoin locked up by ETFs and MicroStrategy after their 2025 purchases. The analysis offers a data-driven view of how supply behaves across different entry points.1320
Bitcoin2026-08-13 04:06:52Bitcoin Faces Two-Month Resistance at Short-Term Holder Realized Price, Trader WarnsIn a post on X, trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) said the realized price for bitcoin's short-term holders — defined as coins held for less than three months — is currently around $67,900. Since June 20, bitcoin's bounce near that level has been repeatedly suppressed, with the resistance now persisting for nearly two months. The slope of the cost curve has also flattened to near zero, suggesting that the turnover of related coins is steadily declining. Murphy noted that similar patterns appeared in late bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was capped below the three-month realized price for roughly three months before the BCH hash war and the FTX collapse led to sharp price swings. He believes the prolonged suppression under this cost line may reflect a structural weak balance in the market — any external force could break it.1270
