Murphy’s latest market read argues that every Bitcoin purchased in 2025 is now sitting at a loss, making this cohort a key source of sell-side pressure. According to the analysis, declines in the amount of 2025-acquired BTC — excluding simple wallet transfers — should be treated as loss-taking sales. That supply has fallen to 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from its peak in December last year. Murphy said the drawdown unfolded in two phases: a steep decline before February, followed by a slower but still persistent reduction afterward. He added that holders who bought between 2022 and 2024 and are still in profit have largely passed the sharpest stage of distribution, with their coin count no longer changing much even if prices fall further. Murphy also compared the current cycle with the last two bear markets. At the 2022 bear-market bottom, coins bought near the 2021 highs had fallen 51%, while the comparable drawdown at the 2018 bottom was 62% for coins bought near the 2017 top. In Murphy’s personal view, the current cycle’s bottom may see a decline of 50% to 60%, versus about 41% now.
According to Murphy, all Bitcoin bought in 2025 is currently underwater.
2025 BTC holdings are down 41.5% from the December peak
Murphy said that whenever the amount of BTC acquired in 2025 declines, cases other than wallet transfers should be counted as loss-taking sales. The remaining stock of Bitcoin bought in 2025 stands at 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from its peak in December last year.
He said the decline unfolded in two distinct phases. Before February this year, the drop was rapid. After February, the pace eased, but the downward slope has remained in place. Murphy added that this group has now become the market’s largest source of supply.
Profit-making holders from 2022 to 2024 have largely moved past the steep phase
For coins bought between 2022 and 2024 that are still in profit, Murphy said the decline slope has largely passed its steepest stage. Even if the price keeps falling, changes in that cohort’s coin count are no longer very pronounced.
In Murphy’s view, the potential supply has already changed hands.
Current drawdown is nearing the range seen in the last two bear markets
Murphy compared the current cycle with the last two bear-market bottoms. In 2022, the amount of coins bought near the 2021 highs had fallen 51% by the bottom. In 2018, the comparable decline for coins bought near the 2017 highs reached 62%.
Murphy personally believes the drawdown at the bottom of this bear market would be at most 50% to 60%. The current figure stands at 41%.
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