Murphy says the move is not being led by fresh leverage
ChainCatcher reported that on-chain data analyst Murphy said this BTC rally looks "a little different": futures liquidations have hit a record, yet open interest (OI) has fallen at the same time. In his view, the price rise has been driven mainly by short stop-losses or forced buy-to-close flows from liquidations, which amounts to clearing existing positions rather than adding new leveraged net exposure.
He said rallies driven only by liquidations often spike and then fade. This time, price held after the push higher, suggesting spot capital was also stepping in.
Spot volume rose to about three times the 30-day average
Murphy noted that when longs dominate futures trading, OI usually rises and funding rates move higher. In this rally, OI has been falling for most of the move, with no sign of a large wave of new leverage entering the market.
Exchange spot relative volume (SRV) reached 2.94 on Aug. 19-20, roughly three times the 30-day average. Over the past two years, similar volume spikes have tended to appear during panic-driven turnover in downtrends or during bull markets. That pattern differs from the January rebound to about $96,000 and the May rebound to about $82,000, when leverage played the larger role.
Early signs of spot demand, but not a confirmed reversal
Murphy said spot demand is only a potential early sign seen for the first time since the bear market began. Even with price testing the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) and the seller exhaustion indicator moving into an extreme zone, he said it is still not enough to declare a trend reversal.