Analyst Murphy published a note on Aug 14 arguing that bitcoin bought in 2025 and still held is now underwater as a whole. The remaining supply from that year stands at 4.77 million BTC, down 41.5% from the peak in December. The decline was rapid before February and has since moderated but continues to follow a visible slope. Murphy describes this cohort as possibly the largest supply source in the current market. In comparison, bitcoin bought in 2022, 2023 and 2024 that remains in profit has already moved past the fast-reduction phase. Longer holding periods are associated with smaller decreases in the amount of coins. Murphy expects that even further price drops may not trigger large moves from these older holders. He puts the potential bottom decline of the current bear market at 50% to 60%, with the present drawdown at 41%. Notably, this estimate does not account for bitcoin locked up by ETFs and MicroStrategy after their 2025 purchases. The analysis offers a data-driven view of how supply behaves across different entry points.
2025 Bitcoin Chips Show Losses, Supply Drops 41.5% From Peak
In a note published on Aug 14, analyst Murphy said bitcoin purchased in 2025 and held to date is largely sitting on losses. On-chain data shows roughly 4.77 million BTC from that cohort remain, down 41.5% from the December peak.
The decline was steep before February, then slowed but kept a persistent slope. Murphy suggests this group could be the largest supply side in the current market.
Older Holders May See Limited Change, Bottom Decline Estimated at 50%-60%
By contrast, coins bought in 2024, 2023 and 2022 that are still in profit have mostly passed the rapid decline stage. The longer the holding period, the smaller the slope of reduction. Murphy believes even if prices keep falling, changes in those earlier holdings may be limited.
He estimates the bear market bottom decline could be at most 50% to 60%, currently 41%, and this does not take into account bitcoin locked by ETFs and MicroStrategy purchases in 2025.
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