In a post on X, trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) said the realized price for bitcoin's short-term holders — defined as coins held for less than three months — is currently around $67,900. Since June 20, bitcoin's bounce near that level has been repeatedly suppressed, with the resistance now persisting for nearly two months. The slope of the cost curve has also flattened to near zero, suggesting that the turnover of related coins is steadily declining. Murphy noted that similar patterns appeared in late bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was capped below the three-month realized price for roughly three months before the BCH hash war and the FTX collapse led to sharp price swings. He believes the prolonged suppression under this cost line may reflect a structural weak balance in the market — any external force could break it.
Bitcoin's three-month short-term holder realized price is around $67,900, according to trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) on X. Since June 20, BTC's rebounds have repeatedly stalled near that cost basis, with the resistance now lasting nearly two months.
Murphy notes the slope of the cost curve has flattened to near zero, a sign that turnover among related coins is continuously declining. He draws a parallel with late bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC stayed pinned below the three-month realized price for about three months before the BCH hash war and the FTX collapse triggered violent swings.
Sustained pressure under this line may reflect a structurally fragile market. Any push from external forces, Murphy argues, would break the balance.
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