BlockBeats reported on Sept. 13 that analyst Murphy said on-chain data can provide a fairly clear read on the trading mindset of representative investor groups in the current phase of the market.
Murphy said the group that bought BTC in the past three to six months has realized very little profit. In other words, many investors who bought near the lower end of that period do not want to take profit at current levels. He described this cohort as the short-term holders, or STH, that are closest to long-term holders, or LTH. Traders who are still not selling at this point are, in his view, more likely positioning for medium- to long-term trades.
Buyers from the past 6 to 12 months are carrying heavier losses
Murphy also said the group that bought BTC in the past six to 12 months has a large amount of unrealized losses. He said this group covers almost all of the supply accumulated during the bear market.
According to Murphy, many of the LTH in this segment are not true conviction holders. Instead, they became long-term holders passively after falling into book losses. That makes them one of the least stable groups whenever the market sees a sharp drop or a rebound.
From a broader cycle perspective, Murphy said BTC can only fully move into its next phase after this selling pressure is gradually absorbed.
Two layers of selling pressure near $82,000
Murphy recently also discussed why Bitcoin has had difficulty breaking above $82,000. He said short-term holder supply is distributed between $59,000 and $81,000. If the price breaks above $82,000, some short-term speculative capital may choose to lock in profits, creating a first layer of selling pressure.
He added that the most concentrated LTH supply peak is located around $81,000 to $82,000. As the price approaches break-even, some of those holders may also choose to exit, forming a second layer of selling pressure.
In Murphy’s view, there is real short-term resistance to a move above $82,000. The market needs time to absorb differences in positioning and absorb supply. After the market rebuilds momentum and breaks through that level, the path ahead would be much easier.