Foresight said in a market analysis piece that two developments have appeared at once in crypto. One is that many people missed the latest rise in digital assets and are now feeling frustrated and regretful. The other is that some capital that had left the space, particularly venture capital firms, has started paying attention to the crypto ecosystem again, including sectors that are drawing fresh interest such as tokenized stocks.
The article linked that backdrop to a view it previously cited from investor Lin Yuan. In the author’s retelling, Lin Yuan’s point was that investors need to be able to remain in the market during a bear market if they want a chance to capture a bull cycle. As for those who expect to leave during the downturn and then get back in right before the uptrend starts, Lin Yuan said he had not seen such a person, at least not among people around him. The author said that view is persuasive.
The appeal of perfect timing versus the difficulty of doing it
The piece argues that this gets at a speculative habit often seen among retail participants. It points to approaches widely discussed online, including so-called left-side trading and right-side trading.
If that logic were applied to Bitcoin and the goal were to catch this cycle perfectly, the ideal trade would look like this: exit in October 2025 when Bitcoin reached a peak of $120,000, then re-enter on Aug. 19 this year when Bitcoin was at $64,000. From there, Bitcoin rose from Aug. 19 to Aug. 21, reaching $79,000 in just two days.
By the article’s account, that would mean avoiding nearly a full year of bear-market pain while also catching the exact starting point of the new move. Some people would describe that as using capital with maximum efficiency. The author takes a different view, writing that it looks more like taking optimization fantasies to an extreme.
The article says most of the people who ended up missing this round of gains were probably thinking in that way but lacked the ability to execute it. In that sense, the author argues, they were never really in a position to make that money, and the opportunity was not truly theirs to begin with.
What counts as catching this rally, the piece says, is much simpler: staying through nearly a year of bear-market conditions and remaining in the market long enough to be present when the move finally arrived. The gains, in that framing, are the natural reward for those who endured the downturn and kept their place.
Returning VC interest draws skepticism in the commentary
The article is sharper when it turns to funds and venture capital firms that had left and are now watching crypto again.
It says some of the areas now attracting their attention, including tokenized stocks, did not suddenly appear in recent months. Teams had already been working and building in those sectors years ago.
According to the commentary, those builders most needed funding, attention and support during the hardest period over the past several years. The author then asks a blunt question: if these investors really had long-term vision and genuinely believed in those sectors, where were they in prior years, and where were they last year and earlier this year?
The piece argues that leaving when funding and support were needed most, then returning now, may say less about a newly discovered conviction in the sector’s potential than about the fact that market conditions have improved. In the author’s telling, the motivation may be that prices and sentiment now look better, making it possible to carry out another round of capital operations around popular narratives.
Projects that shine in a bull market are often built in a bear market
The central argument is that the projects that go on to stand out in a bull market are the ones nurtured during the bear market, not the ones built by chasing narratives and timing cycles.
The commentary also raises another point: among projects that managed to keep going throughout a bear market, how many would actually want money from this kind of fund? On that basis, the author concludes that funds or venture firms coming back with that mindset are unlikely to find the strongest projects.
The article closes by extending Lin Yuan’s logic to institutional capital. If investors want to catch the next major project, it says, they need to remain inside the ecosystem even during the bear market and back teams that keep building through the downturn, rather than leave in the bear phase and hope to re-enter just before the next bull run begins.
The original article also carried a disclaimer saying markets involve risk, investment should be approached with caution, and the piece does not constitute investment advice.
