Market Cycle & Historical Comparison: End of Bear Market
Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald published a report stating that the crypto market is entering the final stage of the current bear cycle. As of June 10, Bitcoin has dropped approximately 51% from its 2025 peak, 252 days after the peak. Historical data from the previous three cycles shows Bitcoin bottoms on average 384 days after its peak. If history repeats, the current decline could bottom around late October. However, the report emphasizes that the model is not a precise timing tool, and macroeconomic policies, regulatory changes, and geopolitical risks may still affect the final outcome.
Institutional View & Risk Warning: Reflexivity and Uncertainty
Citing the reflexive nature of crypto markets, the report suggests historical cycles may self-reinforce as participants' expectations accelerate bottom formation. At the same time, it warns of risks from the current macroeconomic environment (e.g., Fed rate path), global regulatory frameworks (e.g., SEC stance), and geopolitical events (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions). Cantor advises investors to shift focus from speculative activities to networks with persistent value accumulation capabilities.
Core Assets: Value-Driven Network Identification
The report highlights Hyperliquid as a typical case of fee-driven token economics, where token value is directly linked to platform transaction fees, demonstrating a sustainable value capture mechanism. Among base layer assets, Cantor views Bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum as the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance. Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated advantages but have not yet proven long-term sustainable value, requiring further observation.
Covered Small/Mid-Cap Names: Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies
Beyond mainstream crypto assets, Cantor initiated coverage on digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies with an Overweight rating. Forward Industries has a target price of $7.9, while Cypherpunk Technologies has a target of $0.9. These companies provide digital asset treasury management services to enterprises, and the report considers them attractive investment opportunities near the cycle bottom.