Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street investment bank, published a report Tuesday arguing that crypto markets are entering the final stage of the current bear cycle. Bitcoin's historical trading patterns suggest a potential bottom in the coming months.
Historical cycle hints at an October floor
Analysts led by Gareth Gacetta wrote: "Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback." As of June 10, bitcoin stood 252 days past its 2025 peak and was down about 51%. Across the previous three cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking — implying a potential low around late October if history repeats. The analysts cautioned that macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks make the model an imprecise timing tool.
At publication, the world's largest cryptocurrency was trading near $59,500. Crypto markets have struggled, with bitcoin falling over 50% from its late-2025 high amid persistent ETF outflows, elevated interest rates and weakening risk appetite.
Focus on networks with durable value
With the market nearing a possible turning point, Cantor urged investors to shift from speculation to networks that accrue lasting value. While crypto adoption is expanding across stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, onchain credit and DeFi, usage alone does not drive token prices. Long-term winners will convert activity into sustainable cash flow or monetary demand.
The report highlighted Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven tokenomics via HYPE buybacks and burns. Bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset, and Ethereum the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance. Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash each have differentiated strengths but still need to show they can translate ecosystem growth into durable token demand.
Digital asset treasuries: overlooked theme
Cantor also flagged digital asset treasury companies as an overlooked investment theme, noting the strongest firms are evolving from passive holders into active operators generating yield, building infrastructure and providing institutional access. It initiated coverage on Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings and price targets of $7.90 and $0.90, respectively.