While retail investors are dumping Cardano, whales are quietly accumulating. On-chain data from Santiment, released in mid-May, shows that addresses holding at least 1 million ADA collectively control 25.09 billion ADA, accounting for 67.47% of the circulating supply — the highest concentration since July 2020.
ADA currently trades around $0.25, down over 70% in the past nine months, with whale holdings shrinking to approximately $6.5 billion. The combination of a steep price decline and aggressive whale buying forms the most intriguing market signal for Cardano.
Whale Accumulation Began in Late 2023
Santiment data indicates this accumulation trend is not short-term. Large address holdings have been increasing since December 2023, spanning over 18 months. That timing is significant: late 2023 marked the early stage of the previous bull run, with large holders quietly building positions before mainstream capital entered. Now that ADA has fallen near historical lows, they are not reducing but adding more, reflecting strong confidence in long-term returns — or at least high stickiness to existing positions.
Analysts broadly view these large holders as treating ADA as a long-term strategic asset rather than a DeFi liquidity tool. With limited short-term yield opportunities on Cardano's protocols, whales have few options to earn ADA from ADA.
Ecosystem Data Deteriorates: TVL Down 80%, DEX Near Dormant
Behind the optimistic narrative, Cardano's on-chain fundamentals tell a different story. Santiment reports TVL has plunged from a peak of $686 million in December 2024 to around $137 million, a decline of nearly 80%. Daily DEX trading volume sits at roughly $2 million, minuscule relative to whale holdings exceeding $6.7 billion.
Retail action is more direct. Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 ADA sold a combined 76.22 million ADA (a 15.6% decrease), while those holding 1,000 to 10,000 sold 320 million ADA (a 14.4% decrease). Retail flight contrasts sharply with whale accumulation.
Concentration Raises Decentralization Concerns
Cardano has long championed academic-driven, decentralized governance. But 67% of supply concentrated in a few large addresses is fueling new community skepticism. Governance rifts are also visible: a representative DRep has been blocking IOG's funding proposals since July 2025. IOG requested $46.8 million for 2026, down from $97.5 million in 2025, yet still faced strong opposition from some large holders.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson pushed back publicly, calling criticism of whale governance "emotional" rather than evidence-based. He has repeatedly stated Cardano will surpass Ethereum and Bitcoin within a decade — a claim that polarizes the community.
Supporters often cite the 2020 whale accumulation as a precedent: after that peak, ADA surged over 3,000% in 2021. But 2026's landscape is different. Solana, Base, and other ecosystems far outpace Cardano in DeFi usage. Whales appear to be betting on a potential future breakout, not an asset with solid current fundamentals.