ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is stabilizing, while arguing that a broader set of macro signals points to productivity-led disinflation rather than deterioration alone.
According to Odaily, Wood said the latest U.S. employment report may appear worrying at first glance, but deeper economic changes are taking shape. She pointed to rising productivity, wider AI adoption and potential deflationary pressure as themes that could define markets going forward.
Deficit ratio could fall if productivity accelerates
Wood said the U.S. federal fiscal deficit now stands at about 5.6% of GDP, near levels seen in the Reagan era during the 1980s. She said that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate in line with ARK Invest’s expectations, that ratio could decline to about 5% by the end of the year, even though most economic forecasting institutions consider that outcome difficult to achieve.
Wood says markets are underpricing deflation risk
On inflation, Wood said markets are underestimating the risk of deflation. She cited a run of softer-than-expected inflation readings, including a 0.4% month-over-month decline in CPI in June, a 0.3% month-over-month drop in PPI and a 0.1% month-over-month increase in core PCE.
She added that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and higher competitive risk in the future.
Dollar view stays constructive
Wood also said she remains constructive on the U.S. dollar. An ARK model built on data from prediction market Kalshi suggests the U.S. Dollar Index could rise to 102.6 this year.
She pushed back on the claim that overseas capital is selling U.S. assets, saying Japan’s recent currency intervention was mainly a matter of selling euros and buying yen, rather than dumping dollars.
Oil supply and AI spending remain in focus
In energy markets, Wood said a global crude oversupply trend is taking shape. She said output in the United Arab Emirates reached a record high after the country exited OPEC, and that further declines in oil prices could become a deflationary driver for the global economy.
On the rush into AI, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overstated. In her view, the current rise in capital spending looks more like the early phase of a long-term technological revolution than a short-lived speculative cycle.
Bitcoin and stablecoins could benefit from agentic commerce
In digital assets, Wood said Bitcoin is stabilizing relative to gold. She added that Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries as “agentic commerce” develops.