Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in its 2023 Crypto Crime Report that revenue generated by cryptocurrency scams fell sharply in 2022. According to the report, scam revenue declined 46% year over year, dropping from $10.9 billion in 2021 to $5.9 billion in 2022. The company said the figure should be viewed as a lower-bound estimate, noting that total losses could rise over time as more wallet addresses linked to scams are identified.
Market weakness played a central role
Chainalysis attributed most of the decline to deteriorating market conditions. The firm said scam performance tends to weaken when cryptocurrency prices fall, making bearish conditions a major headwind for fraud operators. In its analysis, scam revenue was trending upward at the start of 2022, but then dropped sharply in early May, around the same time the broader crypto bear market intensified following the collapse of Terra Luna.
After that turning point, scam revenue continued to decline through the rest of the year. Chainalysis suggested that scammers generally find it harder to attract victims and sustain inflows when prices are falling and investor sentiment is deteriorating. In weaker markets, speculative enthusiasm fades, reducing the effectiveness of many schemes that rely on fear of missing out, aggressive return promises, or fast-moving narratives.
Scam revenue closely tracked bitcoin’s price
One of the report’s more notable observations is the relationship between scam activity and bitcoin’s market performance. Chainalysis said scam revenue throughout 2022 tracked bitcoin’s price “almost perfectly,” with changes in scam revenue typically following price moves by about three weeks. That lag suggests scam operations may respond directly to shifts in broader market momentum, but with a delay as criminal networks adjust tactics and potential victims react to changing conditions.
While the report acknowledged that some scam categories may behave differently during downturns, the broader trend was clear: lower asset prices coincided with lower scam revenue. This finding reinforces the idea that crypto fraud is not isolated from market cycles. Instead, it is deeply influenced by the same sentiment and liquidity dynamics that shape legitimate trading activity.
Multiple scam categories remain active
Chainalysis tracks a range of crypto scam types, including giveaway scams, impersonation scams, investment scams, NFT scams, and romance scams. Even with the significant year-over-year decline, the report does not suggest that the threat has disappeared. Rather, it indicates that the amount successfully extracted by scammers fell during a difficult year for the broader digital asset market.
The company also emphasized that its estimates are incomplete by nature. Because scam attribution on-chain improves over time, losses tied to known fraud operations may eventually be revised upward. In other words, the reported $5.9 billion total may not represent the final picture of 2022 scam activity.
“Pig butchering” scams remain a major concern
Among the fraud categories highlighted in the report, so-called pig butchering scams received particular attention. These schemes, which often involve long-term manipulation of victims through false personal or investment relationships, have become an increasingly prominent concern for both investigators and regulators. Chainalysis noted their growing popularity, underscoring the persistence of social engineering-based fraud even as overall scam revenue declined.
U.S. authorities have repeatedly warned about this type of scheme. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has issued multiple alerts related to pig butchering scams, reflecting the scale and sophistication of the threat. In November 2022, U.S. authorities also seized seven domains that had been used by pig butchering scammers, showing that law enforcement agencies are stepping up efforts to disrupt the infrastructure behind such operations.
Lower revenue does not mean lower risk
Although the data points to a major fall in scam proceeds, the report does not imply that crypto users are substantially safer simply because criminals earned less in 2022. Fraud tactics continue to evolve, and some scam formats may remain highly effective in specific market conditions. Falling scam revenue may reflect weaker conversion rates, lower available capital, or reduced retail participation rather than a broad disappearance of scam attempts.
For users, the takeaway is that risk remains elevated across several categories of fraud. Offers tied to unrealistic returns, fake airdrops or giveaways, impersonation attempts, and relationship-based investment pressure continue to be common warning signs. The market downturn may have reduced scammers’ earnings, but it did not eliminate the incentives for fraudsters to keep targeting crypto holders.
What the numbers suggest about the crypto market
Chainalysis’ findings add to a broader understanding of how illicit activity shifts with market cycles. In bullish periods, rising prices, stronger retail participation, and abundant liquidity can create fertile conditions for scams. In bearish environments, those same schemes often become less effective because potential victims are more cautious and the available capital pool is smaller. The 2022 decline in scam revenue appears to fit that pattern closely.
Ultimately, the report presents a nuanced picture. On one hand, the drop from $10.9 billion to $5.9 billion marks a substantial decline in scam proceeds. On the other, Chainalysis made clear that the estimate is conservative, that harmful scam categories remain active, and that enforcement attention—especially around pig butchering—continues to be necessary. The data may show that the crypto bear market hurt scammers’ earnings, but it also highlights how resilient and adaptive online fraud remains.