U.S. inflation picked up again in August, according to a research note from China International Capital Corporation, or CICC, cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 12. The note said headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI increased 0.3% from a month earlier. Core CPI also climbed 2.4% year over year, slightly above market expectations.
CICC said the August inflation print has reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes. It expects the Fed could raise rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 policy meeting, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%.
In CICC’s view, higher energy prices and continued resilience in services prices remained key drivers of inflation, while some AI-related price pressures had also begun to emerge. The firm added that the Fed may lower its unemployment-rate forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and push up its projected rate path for 2027 and 2028, sending a more hawkish signal. CICC also warned that the bigger risk is that the Fed could deliver additional hikes later this year or next year, leaving room for markets to reprice expectations for an easing cycle.
U.S. inflation heated up again in August, according to a CICC research note cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 12.
CICC said August CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core CPI increased 0.3% from the previous month. Both readings accelerated from the prior period. Core CPI was up 2.4% year over year, slightly above market expectations.
The firm said the August inflation data has reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to restart rate hikes. It expects the Fed may raise rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 policy meeting, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%.
By category, CICC said rising energy prices and persistent strength in services prices remained major drivers of inflation. It also said some AI-related pricing pressure had started to appear.
CICC expects the Fed may lower its unemployment-rate forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and lift its projected rate path for 2027 and 2028, sending a more hawkish policy signal.
The firm also warned that a larger risk is that the Fed could raise rates again later this year or next year, which would leave room for markets to reprice expectations for the rate-cut cycle.
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