Circle is being undervalued because the market still treats it as a standard stablecoin issuer, while its payment network and broader full-stack money platform are not fully reflected in the stock, according to Artemis Analytics.
The thesis, translated by TechFlow, extends a discussion from last week’s podcast appearance by ARK Invest’s Lorenzo Valente on why Circle may be mispriced. Artemis says the prevailing market view is that Circle’s moat is thin, stablecoins are commoditized, and alliances such as Open Standard could take a large share of the market. Its view is the reverse: Circle’s moat is deeper than investors assume, and its first-mover advantage is being discounted.
Three drivers behind the valuation case
Artemis frames the argument around three main points. First, stablecoins could grow at a 40% compound annual rate and exceed $1 trillion by 2030. Second, the market is shaped by liquidity and network effects, which makes it hard for consortium models such as OUSD to take meaningful share. Third, Circle is still valued as a stablecoin issuer rather than as a full-stack money platform.
The report notes that Circle’s second-worst trading day on record came when Open Standard was announced. The consortium stablecoin was presented with backing from more than 140 companies, including Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and Google. Circle stock fell 17% after the announcement, pushing CRCL close to its historical low. Artemis says that move revealed what the market was pricing in: that Stripe could assemble a coalition, challenge the Circle-Tether duopoly, and spread stablecoin revenue across participating members.
Why Artemis still expects stablecoin supply to pass $1 trillion
Artemis argues that many investors do not believe stablecoin supply can reach $1 trillion by 2030, often pointing to stalled growth. The counterpoint in the note is that stablecoin supply has, for the first time, decoupled from crypto prices. Even after crypto prices fell 50% to 70% from recent highs, stablecoin supply held steady. Artemis reads that as evidence that stablecoins are becoming an asset class in their own right.
If supply keeps growing at the pace seen over the last three years, the report says global stablecoin supply would exceed $1 trillion by 2030. That assumption sits at the center of the broader Circle valuation model.
Liquidity and network effects still favor incumbents
Over the last few years, dozens of issuers have tried to break the Circle-Tether duopoly. Yet despite the launch of hundreds of stablecoins, those two still account for more than 80% of total supply, according to the report.
Artemis says this is not simply a story about issuance. Stablecoin distribution depends on liquidity across chains, apps and exchanges, and that infrastructure is difficult to build from scratch. In its view, Circle remains far ahead of challengers on that front, which is why the report treats liquidity and network effects as the company’s core moat.
The OUSD question
The note acknowledges that the market clearly sees OUSD as a major threat to Circle. Artemis argues, though, that alliances rarely succeed in practice. It lays out three conditions for a consortium to work:
- Aligned incentives among members. Artemis says OUSD partly checks this box through interest income sharing.
- Clear governance. Here the report says Open Standard looks weak, noting that several announced “partners” said they were not consulted and have not made commitments.
- Existential pressure. Artemis writes that most institutions still do not treat stablecoins as a make-or-break issue, with Stripe as a possible exception.
Based on the information available so far, the report concludes that Open Standard meets roughly one-third of the needed conditions.
Circle is being priced too narrowly
Artemis says the market still sees Circle mainly as the issuer of USDC. That framing leads investors to underappreciate the business because most of its current revenue is still interest income tied to Federal Reserve policy.
In the report’s view, Circle is actually building a full-stack money product for the future internet, with a technology company at its core. If that thesis plays out, its valuation should move closer to payment networks, where businesses charge basis-point fees on transaction volume, rather than being judged mainly on balances and interest income.
How the $50 billion scenario is built
Artemis starts with today’s base case: Circle has roughly $2.8 billion in annualized revenue, an $18 billion valuation, and a 6.7x price-to-sales multiple. That sits well below payment networks at 14x and high-growth fintech names such as HOOD at 17x. It is also almost identical to COIN, which the market largely views as a crypto exchange.
The report argues that Circle can grow out of the label of being rate-sensitive and tied to crypto cycles, and that a less fragile revenue structure should justify a higher multiple. Artemis calls 10x a conservative and reasonable valuation level.
Under its assumptions, if stablecoin supply reaches $1 trillion by 2030, USDC holds a 20% share, and rates are 2%, CRCL could generate $4 billion in interest income.
On diversification, Artemis points to Circle Payments Network as a key growth product. Even with weak crypto prices and flat stablecoin supply, annualized transaction volume at Circle Payments Network has been rising quickly. As of the latest disclosure at the end of July 2026, annualized volume stood at $23 billion, up 6.8x year over year and 70% quarter over quarter, though the report notes the base was small. If that business keeps compounding at 60% to 65% annually, transaction volume could reach about $200 billion by 2030. At a 20 basis-point take rate, that would add another $400 million in revenue.
Artemis also includes Arc in the model. If Arc reaches the scale of Tron, described in the note as another chain focused on stablecoins, Arc would produce $500 million in fees.
Put together, those estimates bring CRCL revenue close to $5 billion, with 20% coming from expanding payments and settlement-related business lines. Artemis says that mix would give investors reason to assign a higher multiple. Using $5 billion in revenue and a 10x multiple, the report arrives at a $50 billion market capitalization for Circle. In its words, a $50 billion value for CRCL is not far-fetched.
The original piece was attributed to Artemis Analytics, with Artemis@artemis__xyz listed at the end. TechFlow published the Chinese translation.
