Citadel Securities, one of the world's largest market makers, is ready to step into prediction markets. President Jim Esposito told the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington D.C. that the firm is 'very likely' to offer liquidity in the fast-growing sector. The move signals a major push from traditional finance into event contracts.
No Sports, Yes Elections & Geopolitics
While sports contracts account for 62% of current prediction market volume, Citadel has no interest there. Esposito stressed that event contracts appeal for their hedging value, specifically calling out the November US midterm elections as a 'seismic event' that poses portfolio risk. Institutional clients need these tools to offset geopolitical and macroeconomic exposure, he said.
From $51B to $1T: Market Explosion Ahead
The growth trajectory is staggering. Bernstein estimates $51 billion in prediction market volume for 2025 (triple year-over-year), $240 billion for 2026, and a potential $1 trillion by 2030. So far in 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket together have already handled over $60 billion in combined trading. Clearer regulation and mainstream partnerships are fueling the boom.
Kalshi Connection: Funding, Friendship & Distribution
Citadel's ties to Kalshi run deep. CEO Peng Zhao personally participated in Kalshi's $185 million funding round last year, and Esposito called Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour a 'good friend.' Critically, Citadel Securities already routes orders for Robinhood, which recently integrated Kalshi's prediction market — a ready-made distribution channel.
CFTC Battle Cooks Beneath the Surface
Regulatory uncertainty lingers. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asserted the agency's 'exclusive jurisdiction' over prediction markets during a House Agriculture Committee hearing, where lawmakers grilled him over staffing and rulemaking. Yet with a heavyweight like Citadel poised to inject deep liquidity, the mainstreaming of prediction markets appears unstoppable.