Citi Research said on Aug. 12 that the upside trade in precious metals is not finished. The bank expects silver to keep following gold and, thanks to higher volatility, act as a more aggressive expression of the rally. Cooler tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish Federal Reserve would both help investment demand recover, Citi said. COMEX gold futures for August delivery settled up 0.49% at $4,383 an ounce, while silver futures fell 0.5% to $64.769 an ounce, ending a two-day winning streak. Citi argued the pullback does not change silver's status as a high-beta play on gold, and silver could reach $95 an ounce in 2027 if geopolitical risks ease and capital returns to the sector. The bank also kept a risk scenario in place, seeing roughly a 20% probability that silver drops to $50 an ounce. That uncertainty shows how closely the current trade is tied to interest-rate expectations, dollar strength and geopolitical developments. For the market, gold remains the core defensive asset and the main expression of rate-cut expectations, while silver is the tool to capture upside once risk appetite returns.
Citi Research said on Aug. 12 that the upside trade in precious metals is not finished. The bank expects silver to keep following gold and, given its higher volatility, act as a more aggressive expression of the rally.
Cooler tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish Federal Reserve would both help investment demand for precious metals recover, the bank said. Recent market moves have provided the backdrop for the call.
Latest prices
COMEX gold futures for August delivery settled up 0.49% at $4,383 an ounce. Silver futures fell 0.5% on the day to $64.769 an ounce, ending a two-day winning streak.
The short-term pullback does not change silver's positioning as a high-beta asset to gold, Citi said. If geopolitical risk cools and drives capital back into precious metals, silver could rise to $95 an ounce by 2027.
Risk case
The bank also flagged a risk scenario: silver still has roughly a 20% probability of falling to $50 an ounce. That shows how dependent the current trade is on interest-rate expectations, the dollar trend and geopolitical risk.
For the broader market, gold remains the core asset for defensive positioning and rate-cut expectations. Silver is better suited to expressing upside flexibility once risk appetite revives.
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