Citigroup has reduced its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ethereum, pointing to slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation, softer ETF inflow expectations, and weakening network activity. In a client note dated March 16, Citigroup Research strategist Alex Saunders cut bitcoin’s target from $143,000 to $112,000 and lowered ethereum’s target from $4,304 to $3,175. At the time of the note, bitcoin was trading near $74,000 and ethereum around $2,330.
The bank said the revised outlook reflects a more cautious stance than it held in late 2025. It did not abandon the view that both assets could move higher over time, but it now sees fewer near-term drivers strong enough to accelerate institutional demand.
Legislative delays in Washington weigh on the outlook
Citi tied much of the downgrade to the lack of movement in U.S. digital asset policy. The Clarity Act, a market-structure bill for digital assets that passed the House in 2025, remains stalled in the Senate. Disputes over stablecoin oversight, ethics rules, and anti-money-laundering requirements have kept the proposal from advancing.
Saunders wrote that regulatory catalysts still matter, but said “the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing.” In Citi’s view, that reduces confidence that fresh rules will arrive soon enough to drive meaningful flows in 2026.
ETF demand is still central, but inflow estimates are lower
Citigroup also revised down its ETF expectations. It now projects roughly $10 billion in inflows for bitcoin ETFs and about $2.5 billion for ethereum products over the next year. The bank described ETF demand as the most important positive factor for crypto prices, though recent inflows have been modest as macro uncertainty persists and investors remain cautious with positioning.
For ethereum, Citi pointed to onchain weakness as an added pressure point. The report said ethereum remains more exposed to user activity metrics, and those indicators have softened recently. Bitcoin, by contrast, is expected to stay range-bound in the near term, with $70,000 identified as a key psychological level linked to U.S. pre-election pricing dynamics.
Base, bullish, and bearish cases show a wide range
In Citi’s base case, bitcoin reaches $112,000 and ethereum rises to $3,175 over the next 12 months. In a stronger scenario, supported by firmer ETF demand and broader adoption, the bank sees bitcoin climbing to $165,000 and ethereum to $4,488.
The bearish case assumes a weaker macro environment. Under that setup, bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and ethereum to $1,198. Even with the lower targets, Citi did not shift to a negative long-term stance. The note said progress in regulation outside the United States and continued development of ETF products could still support growth later on.
Market reaction to the report was muted after publication, with prices holding steady and no immediate move tied to the note.