Wall Street investment bank Citigroup has sharply lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether, citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation, softer network activity, and diminished expectations for ETF inflows. The new bitcoin target stands at $112,000, down from $143,000, while ether's target drops from $4,304 to $3,175. Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 at the time of writing, with ether at $2,330.
Legislative Window Narrows, Market Sentiment Chills
Analyst Alex Saunders noted in Monday's report that the window to pass digital asset legislation this year is shrinking, with market-implied odds falling to roughly 60%. While global policy remains largely supportive, he argued that headline U.S. legislation — such as the CLARITY Act, which cleared the House but remains deadlocked in the Senate — would be a much stronger catalyst for institutional flows than incremental rulemaking. The bill aims to settle the jurisdictional battle between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset classification, providing legal clarity for investors and firms.
ETF Demand Still Key but Expectations Lowered
Citigroup still sees ETF inflows as the most important positive factor for both assets but has reduced its 12-month demand assumptions. The bank now assumes $10 billion in bitcoin ETF inflows and $2.5 billion for ether ETFs. Saunders said that despite a modest pickup in recent ETF demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, the overall outlook is less optimistic than before.
Momentum Lags, Prices Under Pressure
Crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum since bitcoin's record highs in October. Weak risk appetite, fading post-halving enthusiasm, and bitcoin trading below key technical levels have weighed on prices. Ether has lagged further, pressured by soft onchain activity. ETF inflows have remained resilient, helping to stabilize the market, but broader macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to cap upside.