Citigroup on Monday slashed its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000 and cut its Ethereum estimate to $3,175 from $4,304. The bank's head of Quantitative Global Macro and DeFi Research Alex Saunders released a note stating: "Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing." Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,968, Ethereum at $2,330.
The Clarity Act: From Near Certainty to 60% Odds
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House last July with a 294-134 vote but has been stuck in the Senate Banking Committee since January. A scheduled markup was pulled at the last minute over disagreements on stablecoin yield rules. Polymarket traders now price the bill's passage in 2026 at 60%, down from the near-certainty assumed at the start of the year. Citi's note spells out the political mechanics: the bill needs at least seven Senate Democrats to cross the aisle. Some Democrats are pushing to bar elected officials from profiting from crypto ventures, a provision that has gained traction amid scrutiny of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial project. Analysts say that dynamic could reduce the likelihood of Trump signing the bill. If Democrats gain seats in the November midterms, the odds shrink further, as Democratic lawmakers remain more divided on overhauling federal crypto rules.
The Range Citi Is Now Watching
Citi's revised outlook spans a wide spectrum. Under a recessionary scenario, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. The bull case, driven by stronger end-investor demand, puts Bitcoin at $165,000 and Ethereum at $4,488. On Ethereum specifically, Citi noted weak user activity metrics but said stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest over time. The bank identified $70,000 as the key level for Bitcoin, describing it as the pre-U.S. election price and the likely floor for range-trading as the market waits on legislative news flow. With Bitcoin around $73K today, that floor is closer than the $112,000 target above it. The Clarity Act has become the single most important variable in Wall Street's crypto outlook. For now, it is stuck.