Citrini analyst Jukan pushed back on recent bearish notes around NAND and negative headlines tied to QLC pricing talks, arguing that the market has overstated the read-through from those reports. He said SanDisk accepting a price below its initial quote in a long-term agreement with Meta was not surprising, because the company has been one of the most aggressive NAND suppliers in pursuing LTAs and plans to allocate more than 50% of its total shipments to such contracts. In that context, taking an LTA price below the current quarter’s contract level should not be used to conclude that SanDisk cannot redirect all orders to higher-bidding North American customers.
Jukan also addressed talk that Chinese module makers failed to sell eSSD products to domestic cloud service providers, saying the issue was that Chinese CSPs can buy directly from YMTC rather than a sign of weak demand. On concerns that hyperscalers are pushing down QLC eSSD pricing and leaving some volume unsold, he said newer cloud players have enough demand to absorb that supply. Jukan ended by saying weak performance in storage stocks tends to amplify negative headlines even when fundamentals have not materially worsened. He reiterated that he remains bullish on storage. He had previously said DRAM contract prices still have about 40% upside through the end of 2027 and that HBM supply remains tight.
On July 25, Citrini analyst Jukan responded to recent bearish notes on NAND and negative market chatter around QLC pricing talks, saying the headlines have been overstated and that storage fundamentals have not materially deteriorated.
SanDisk’s lower-priced LTA with Meta was described as a strategy call
Jukan said it was not surprising that SanDisk accepted a price below its initial quote when signing a long-term agreement with Meta. He described SanDisk as one of the most aggressive NAND makers in pursuing LTAs and said the company plans to allocate more than 50% of its total shipments to those agreements.
Given that approach, Jukan said SanDisk would naturally be willing to accept an LTA price below the current quarter’s contract price. He said that should not be taken to mean that “SanDisk cannot seamlessly redirect all orders to North American customers offering higher prices.”
Comments on China eSSD sales and QLC volume concerns
Addressing market talk that Chinese module makers were rejected while pitching eSSD products to domestic CSPs, Jukan said the explanation is that Chinese CSPs have direct procurement channels with YMTC, rather than a shortfall in demand.
On claims that hyperscale cloud companies are forcing down QLC eSSD prices and leaving part of the volume unsold, Jukan said newer cloud players have enough demand to absorb those shipments.
Jukan reiterated a bullish stance on storage
Jukan concluded that when storage stocks trade poorly, negative headlines are more likely to be amplified, even though fundamentals have not seen a material worsening. He reiterated that he remains “bullish on storage.”
Jukan had previously said DRAM contract prices still have about 40% upside through the end of 2027 and that HBM supply remains tight. His latest clarification on NAND adds to that broader constructive view on the storage segment.
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