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Morgan Stanle
2026-09-22 06:31:00

Morgan Stanley says storage is still early-cycle, servers lag behind, and PCs are deteriorating fast

Morgan Stanley said in a Sept. 21 IT hardware report that enterprise hardware spending stayed strong in the second quarter, with traditional server revenue up 87% year over year, storage up 34%, and PC revenue up 14%, each at their fastest pace in more than a decade outside the pandemic period. The firm’s main call is that storage remains in the early stage of an upward cycle, the server cycle is later, and the PC opportunity has already worsened quickly. It said the market is now looking past the recent strength and focusing on how long the cycle can last, noting that six of eight enterprise hardware OEM, VAR, and distributor stocks traded at lower valuation multiples after earnings even though next-fiscal-year EPS estimates were revised up by an average of 12%. Among names under coverage, Morgan Stanley said its top picks are P and SNX, followed by HPE. It kept Dell at Equal-weight despite raising its price target to $511 from $499, arguing that strong execution is already reflected in valuation and that late-cycle earnings durability is less clear. It reiterated Overweight on P with a $119 target and highlighted Sept. 23 analyst day as a key event. It also kept Underweight on HPQ with a $19 target, citing pressure from weakening PC demand and margins. The report flagged a heavy catalyst calendar stretching from Dell’s Sept. 22 COO meeting through early-October IDC PC data and Taiwan ODM monthly revenue disclosures.

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Morgan Stanley says storage is still early-cycle, servers lag behind, and PCs are deteriorating fast
Morgan Stanley says enterprise hardware spending stayed strong in Q2, with storage still early in the cycle
U.S. stocks close lower Monday as optical networking, semiconductors, storage and Neocloud names fall
Serenity: Storage Supply-Demand Tightness Persists, Short-Term Rally Doesn't Signal Bottleneck Breakthrough
Tomasz Tunguz says AI infrastructure bottlenecks are moving from GPUs to memory, CPUs and storage
AI supply cha
2026-08-16 05:01:46

Serenity says the AI supply chain is still in a high-growth phase, with storage and packaging in focus

Serenity, known online as the "white-haired stock god," said on X that the AI infrastructure buildout is still driving a long expansion cycle across several parts of the supply chain, including storage, advanced packaging, compute financing, optical communications, power systems, and electronic components. In the storage segment, Serenity cited a UBS forecast saying gross margin at traditional DRAM makers such as Micron could reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, potentially topping margins seen in HBM products. Serenity also pointed to SanDisk, saying long-term agreements already cover about two-thirds of its 2028 capacity, with minimum contracted revenue of $93 billion, against a current market capitalization of about $239 billion. On cloud infrastructure, CoreWeave has signed an agreement to keep using Nvidia A100 GPUs through 2029, which Serenity said supports newer cloud companies such as Nebius and Iren while weakening bearish arguments around rapid depreciation of older GPUs. Serenity added that growth at frontier AI labs remains extremely fast, with market expectations that Anthropic could generate $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue by 2028. At the same time, advanced packaging and semiconductor infrastructure remain major bottlenecks, with a TSMC advanced packaging executive warning that the industry could face both memory shortages and tight ABF substrate supply in the coming years.

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Serenity says the AI supply chain is still in a high-growth phase, with storage and packaging in focus