On September 6, Serenity said the basic shortage in storage hasn’t changed. If anything, it may get tighter. Markets jump from one bottleneck sector to the next. But the companies are still the same. What really shifts is valuation—and the story people tell about it.
Serenity pointed to several signs that the storage supply-demand gap could be worse than many expect: Nikkei said Japanese distributors are seeing a storage demand gap of 40% to 60%, with prices possibly climbing another 50% by year-end; SpaceX's capital expenditure does not include the roughly $1.3 trillion in capex from hyperscale cloud providers, so total spending may come in above expectations; SanDisk's 80% gross margin target may hold through 2030; and Samsung and other companies have order visibility running into 2031.
Serenity also stressed that storage stocks swing hard. The firm said its own positions are up more than 270%, which makes it easier to sit through the volatility, but the business itself often moves very differently from short-term stock action. And the same idea carries over to other bottleneck sectors like optical modules, CW lasers, and substrates—a bounce in the share price does not mean the shortage has ended.
Storage prices and supply-demand structures are still tight. Sentiment? Valuation narratives? Those are rotating fast.