Prediction-market traders cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file cloture Tuesday night on the motion to proceed to the crypto market structure bill. Thune instead filed cloture Wednesday morning on a college sports bill and on the nomination of Todd Blanche.
On Kalshi, the contract on a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Jan. 1, 2027 last traded at 22 cents, down from 30 cents. On Polymarket, the market titled “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” priced Yes at 15.5 cents, down 8.5 points on the day, 12 points on the week, and 32.5 points over the past month. That market had traded $4.76 million in total volume, including $896,780 in the prior 24 hours, based on data last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET Wednesday.
The repricing suggested traders moved money down the calendar rather than abandoning the idea altogether. Kalshi’s contract on enactment before Sept. 1, 2026 fell to 2 cents from 4 cents, with roughly 962,000 contracts of open interest. The before-July 2027 contract slipped to 43 cents from 49 cents. Later deadlines moved the other way: the before-October 2027 contract rose to 58 cents from 55 cents, and the before-January 2028 contract increased to 65 cents from 64 cents.
Because the contracts settle on cumulative deadlines, the spread between the 2027 and 2028 strikes implies traders assign about 43 cents of probability to enactment during calendar 2027. That is roughly double the 22 cents they now assign to the rest of this year.
Thune still wants a procedural vote
Thune told reporters Wednesday that he still wants a procedural vote on the bill even after filing cloture on the college sports measure and the Blanche nomination. According to Punchbowl News reporter Laura Weiss, Thune said, “We’re sequencing it but there are some things still out there that we want to do.” He added that he would gauge cooperation and interest over the next day or two.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett said Tuesday’s non-filing was tied to procedural matters connected to the ongoing continuing resolution. She also said a lack of votes and unresolved major issues likely played a role. In her reading, Wednesday’s filing on the college sports bill indicates there is still no bipartisan agreement on CLARITY. A cloture filing places a vote on the schedule 30 hours later.
How Kalshi settlement rules affect the market
Kalshi has already settled one deadline contract tied to the bill. Its contract on enactment before Aug. 1, 2026 resolved “no” on Aug. 1 after about 1.11 million contracts traded.
Under the rules for the series, only congressional legislation that is signed into law counts for payout. Executive orders, regulatory guidance, agency rules, stablecoin-only bills, and bills that pass only one chamber do not qualify.
Where the bill stands in Congress
The House passed H.R. 3633 last year. Once the measure reached the Senate floor, it needed at least seven Democratic votes to break a filibuster.