The Rollup podcast host Andy revealed on X that according to Capitol Hill insiders, the CLARITY Act has virtually zero chance of passing. While Polymarket shows a 18% probability, the actual odds are likely around 3%–5%.
Andy noted that inside Washington D.C., it is widely understood that the bill cannot pass, but no one can publicly admit it because the industry has already spent tens of millions of dollars and 18 months of resources pushing for it. Moreover, the Democratic Party's ethical inquiries into Trump's cryptocurrency interests have not yet received substantive answers. Given this, Andy believes the YES side on prediction markets is overpriced, while NO might be worth watching.
Andy added that the CLARITY Act may subsequently be "broken down into several independent bills" targeting specific segments of the crypto market. After the CLARITY Act's failure, what could follow are innovation exemption policies, decrees, or sub-bills focused on stablecoins, asset tokenization, perpetual contracts, and prediction markets. At this stage, lawmakers prefer a piecemeal, granular approach rather than a comprehensive, sweeping crypto bill. Based on his conversations with Washington insiders, Andy sees this as the more likely long-term scenario.