Prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act jumped on Monday as traders increased bets that Washington may finally move a crypto market structure bill forward. Contracts on both Kalshi and Polymarket moved to their highest levels in weeks ahead of a key Senate procedural vote.
Polymarket and Kalshi both moved higher
On Polymarket, the contract on whether the CLARITY Act will become law this year rose from 12% in early September to nearly 30% on Monday morning. That marked its highest level since early August and showed traders placing more weight on the Senate cloture vote scheduled for Tuesday.
Kalshi posted a steeper move across several timelines:
- Passage by October 2027 rose from 26% on Thursday to 53%, and briefly reached 64%
- Passage by July climbed from 30% to 53%, with a high of 69%
- Passage by April increased from 23% to 45%, nearly doubling
The repricing came after Republican senators released the final version of the CLARITY Act on Monday night. The proposal included added ethics provisions, which the market read as a clearer sign that the legislation is moving.
TD Cowen keeps lower odds
TD Cowen financial policy analyst Jaret Sieberg did not follow the market higher to the same extent. In a note to clients on Monday, he maintained a 25% probability that the bill would pass and said prediction markets may be getting ahead of themselves.
「We are not sure whether the new ethics provisions released by Senate Republicans last night are meaningful enough for moderate Democrats.」
Sieberg listed several concerns:
- President Trump could still hold crypto investments even through a blind trust, meaning there is no full separation from the industry
- State attorneys general would still have narrow litigation authority and might not be able to act directly against the president
- If the bill passes before the November election, Trump could frame it as a personal win, leaving Democrats to absorb the political cost
He also said the new proposal gives stablecoin protections to bank deposit accounts, which could make banks more comfortable and offer Democrats some political cover.
The 60-vote Senate step is only the beginning
Tuesday’s Senate cloture vote requires 60 votes, forcing the bill to attract bipartisan support. Clearing that bar would mark an important political milestone, but it would not mean final passage.
The bill would still need to go through possible Senate revisions, reconciliation with the House, and a final presidential signature.
Sieberg added that if the administration has not yet nominated Democratic candidates to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, those nominations could become bargaining chips in final negotiations.
Prediction market data now points to a clearer legislative path. The gap between a 60-vote Senate procedure and a signed law, however, remains substantial. This week’s vote will test whether that rise in market confidence is justified.