The odds of the Clarity Act passing in Congress jumped to 31% after President Donald Trump agreed to updated ethics provisions tied to the bill, according to Decrypt’s Morning Minute newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The move came as the Senate prepared for a procedural vote that could decide whether crypto market structure legislation advances this year.
Senate Democrats meet before Tuesday vote
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gathered Senate Democrats on Sunday evening to discuss the Clarity Act, two days before the vote. Decrypt said the meeting followed Trump’s Friday session with advisers on the bill’s ethics provisions, an issue that has blocked progress since July.
After that development, the market-implied odds of passage rose to 31% overnight, more than doubling from their low. Decrypt pointed readers to a related Myriad market asking, “Will Congress pass the Clarity Act?”
The newsletter said Trump appears to have accepted revised ethics language that would limit what he, his family, and other elected officials could do in crypto. That issue had been the main sticking point for many Democrats.
Cloture vote set for 2:15 p.m. ET
The next key moment comes Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET, when the Senate is scheduled to vote on cloture. Sixty votes would send the bill to floor debate. Anything short of that, Decrypt wrote, would end the chances for comprehensive crypto legislation in 2026, with the next realistic opening pushed to 2029.
Republicans control 53 seats in the chamber, but at least two are expected to vote no. That leaves backers needing about nine Democrats. As of Friday, not one Democrat had publicly committed support. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey had also said the revised draft still fell short.
New version runs 630 pages
The rewritten text landed Thursday at 630 pages, with more than 114 provisions added at Democratic request. Decrypt highlighted one substantive change: protocols described as “decentralized-in-name-only” would be brought under Commodity Futures Trading Commission registration requirements and Bank Secrecy Act rules.
The ethics language, however, was left untouched in that rewrite, which Decrypt described as the core problem.
Regulatory moves continue even without a statute
Decrypt argued that progress is still being made even if the bill does not pass. The newsletter said CFTC Chain Mike Selig has already told staff to explore rules under existing authority if Congress fails to act. It also said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed allowing blockchains to serve as official stock ownership records.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to dismiss CME’s lawsuit over perpetuals, and Coinbase has filed to bring single-stock perpetuals onshore. Decrypt noted that all of those developments came within two weeks and without a new statute.
Decrypt’s market view on a passage scenario
Warner wrote that a successful vote does not appear to be priced in by the market. In that scenario, ETH would likely be a major beneficiary, he said, and revenue-producing protocols such as Hyperliquid and Lighter could also be among the winners. He added that the broader crypto market could rally sharply if the bill advances.
Crypto majors rebound as odds rise
Major cryptocurrencies traded in the green, up 1% to 3% as Clarity Act odds improved. BTC rose 1% to $77,800, ETH gained 1% to $2,510, SOL added 2% to $101, HYPE climbed 4% to $80, and ZEC rose 3% to $1,130.
Among altcoins, FIL gained 22%, Pendle rose 9%, and LIT added 9%.
Outside crypto, oil was up 3% at $103 while gold fell 2% to $4,333. Stock futures were lower on calls for an AI slowdown, with the Dow down 0.2% and the Nasdaq off 1.5%.
Decrypt also noted that Dario Amodei called for slowing frontier AI development. Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly agreed, citing AI systems that increasingly help build their own successors.
A separate item in the newsletter said a fake government request slipped through Revolut’s checks, exposing passports, verification selfies, home addresses, and full Bitcoin transaction histories for an undisclosed number of customers. No funds were lost.
India also launched “Demat 2.0” to issue corporate bonds as digital tokens on a permissioned ledger settled with the wholesale digital rupee. REC, Larsen & Toubro, and IIFL Finance have already raised about $107 million in a market valued at $620 billion.
ETF flows diverge sharply
Friday’s ETF data showed a split between Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $13 million in net outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs brought in $216 million.
Pump rolls out Holder Rewards
Meme coin leaders were slightly higher, with DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and TRUMP each up 1%. PENGU fell 1%, while SPX rose 5%.
Leaders in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem were mostly lower as chain volume cooled. Pons rose 4% to $390 million, AI slipped 1% to $245 million, and Cashcat fell 5% to $150 million. The biggest movers included Pare at +40%, Strategy at +60%, and Raxol at +110%.
On Solana, the top movers were Cate at +40%, Perpspad at +46%, and Biketyson at +290%.
In on-chain protocol revenue over the past seven days, Pump led with $10.2 million, followed by Hyperliquid at $9.9 million, Aerodrome at $9.2 million, Pons at $8 million, and Stonkfun at $7.4 million.
Stonkfun posted a blowoff revenue day on Friday at $2.2 million, but revenue then fell to $1.05 million and $900,000 over the following two weekend days.
Pump introduced Holder Rewards, a mechanism that lets creators choose a share of fees to return to token holders.
NFT market mostly flat
NFT leaders were mostly unchanged. CryptoPunks were flat at 29.8 ETH, Bored Ape Yacht Club fell 1% to 6.65 ETH, and Pudgy dropped 3% to 3.46 ETH.
Argonauts rose 20% and Cat Street Broker climbed 120% to lead the top movers. Decrypt added that Argonauts saw a 14.5 ETH sale overnight as the floor moved to 0.86 ETH.