CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Oct. 28 has fallen to 18.3% after weaker employment and inflation readings, while the probability of a rate cut remains at 0%. Markets now broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month. The shift followed a September nonfarm payrolls report showing only 29,000 jobs added, far below the 90,000 expected, and an August core PCE reading that rose 0.2% month over month, also below expectations. Techub, citing BeInCrypto, said Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have also recently signaled no urgency to act again. At the same time, minutes from the September meeting showed that most FOMC members believe another rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate. Goldman Sachs now expects any hike to be pushed back to December. The report added that holding rates steady could temporarily remove one threat facing Bitcoin, though elevated long-term yields and other factors continue to cloud the outlook.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Oct. 28 has dropped to 18.3%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, after weaker employment and inflation data. The probability of a rate cut stands at 0%, and markets broadly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this month.
Weaker jobs and inflation data
September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, well below the 90,000 expected. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.2% month over month in August, also below expectations.
Techub, citing BeInCrypto, reported that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have recently signaled that they are not in a hurry to take another step.
Minutes and Wall Street expectations
Still, minutes from the September meeting showed that most Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, members believe another rate hike in 2026 could be appropriate. Goldman Sachs now expects any hike to be delayed until December.
The report also said that leaving rates unchanged could temporarily remove one threat facing Bitcoin, although elevated long-term yields and other factors continue to make the outlook more complicated.
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