According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 66.3%, with a 33.7% chance of a 25bp hike. For September, the probability of no change drops to 33.1%, a 25bp hike rises to 50%, and a 50bp hike is at 16.9%. These figures are unchanged from pre-ADP levels.
Fed Rate Probability Update
According to CME FedWatch data reported by Jinshi, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July stands at 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 33.7%. Looking ahead to September, the probability of rates staying unchanged drops to 33.1%, the likelihood of a 25bp hike rises to 50%, and the probability of a 50bp hike is 16.9%. These probabilities remain consistent with levels observed before the release of the ADP employment report, indicating no material shift in market expectations.
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