Polymarket2026-09-30 11:35:35Polymarket odds of no Fed rate change in October rise to 59%PPP’s prediction-market tracker showed that on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October climbed to 59%, up 28% over the past 24 hours. In the same market, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike fell to 42%, down 27% on the day. The update came ahead of a fresh batch of U.S. economic data due later on Wednesday Beijing time. At 20:15 Beijing time, the September ADP employment report is scheduled for release first. That will be followed by the August Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, data, which the Fed watches closely. Market expectations cited in the source put core PCE at 3.3% year over year.280
US macro2026-09-30 07:30:59ADP jobs data and PCE due tonight could reset October Fed hike betsU.S. macro traders are watching two releases scheduled for tonight. The September ADP employment report is due at 20:15, with expectations for an increase of 70,000 jobs. Fifteen minutes later, at 20:30, the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading, the inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve, is set for release. Core PCE is expected to hold at 3.3% on an annual basis. The update comes after Federal Reserve official John Williams unexpectedly sent a dovish signal, which pushed market expectations for an October rate hike down to roughly even odds. According to the report cited by Odaily and attributed to Jin10, a hotter-than-expected outcome in both the ADP and PCE releases could revive bets that the Fed may still raise rates in October. The report did not provide any additional market pricing details beyond that shift in expectations.270
Polymarket2026-09-03 11:57:43Fed Rate Hike Probability on Polymarket Drops to 49%, Down 10% in 24 HoursThe probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September on Polymarket has fallen to 49%, down 10% in 24 hours. The drop follows weaker-than-expected ADP employment data for August, which showed an increase of only 38,000 jobs. Markets now await the August nonfarm payrolls report due Sept 4, the last full employment data before the Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting.870
Policy and Re2026-09-02 13:03:10US Premarket Brief: ADP Jobs Miss Forecasts as Trump Administration Weighs New Chip TariffsSeveral market-moving items hit the tape before Monday’s US stock market open on Sept. 2. The August ADP employment report showed 38,000 jobs added, the smallest increase since January and below the 48,000 expected, versus a prior reading of 44,000. After the release, market pricing implied a 37.8% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave rates unchanged in September and a 62.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis-point hike. Federal Reserve official John Williams said inflation remains the top priority and described the current rate level as appropriate, while also pointing to bond yields as an important signal for assessing economic conditions. In trade policy, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the Trump administration is considering a new round of import tariffs on semiconductors, potentially paired with tariff relief for companies investing in US manufacturing. Other premarket developments included Oppenheimer raising its SpaceX target price, JPMorgan’s Grace Peters warning that rising bond yields remain a key risk for equities, the SEC releasing the full agenda for its Sept. 17 roundtable on 24-hour trading, reported acquisition talks between Nvidia and Hugging Face, and an SEC filing detailing compensation changes for Apple’s new CEO Ternus.1030
AI2026-08-27 02:22:17Stanford study finds AI hasn’t broken overall employment, but it is making entry-level hiring harderA new update from Stanford Digital Economy Lab says AI is not driving an economy-wide employment collapse, but it is making the labor market tougher for young workers trying to get in. The study found that workers aged 22 to 25 in occupations with high AI exposure now face a 19% employment gap versus peers in low-exposure roles, up from 15% a year earlier. Using payroll data from ADP covering November 2022 through June 2026, the researchers said the widening gap is being driven mainly by weaker hiring rather than layoffs. The paper argues that incumbent workers have remained relatively stable, with no major difference in quit rates and no system-wide wage decline tied to AI exposure. Instead, employers appear to be opening fewer roles for recent graduates. The findings also line up with Anthropic’s distinction between “automation” and “augmentation”: occupations with greater automation exposure show weaker outcomes for young workers, while augmentation-heavy roles are flat or still growing. The authors frame the trend as an early warning, not evidence of broad labor-market collapse.1020
nonfarm payro2026-08-07 11:40:15US July Jobs Report Preview: 80K Expected, ADP Shows Weaker HiringThe July US nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight at 20:30, and markets are looking for a rebound in hiring. The median expectation is 80,000 new jobs, above June's 57,000 increase, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% on the year and 0.3% on the month. ADP private payrolls, a closely watched signal, rose just 44,000 this week, pointing to a softer picture. A Reuters poll puts the consensus at 80,000, and a separate Dow Jones Newswires and Wall Street Journal survey shows an average estimate of 83,000. Goldman Sachs economists caution that July readings often miss market expectations, and prior months' job growth has been subject to sizable revisions. Behind the stable jobless rate, labor force participation has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. The latest private-sector employment data suggests companies are less eager to hire. Labor market resilience now comes more from supply and demand cooling together than from stronger recruitment.1860
Gold2026-08-06 17:46:54Spot gold nears $4,300 as four-day rally draws support from weak U.S. jobs data and central bank buyingSpot gold moved close to the $4,300-per-ounce mark on Thursday, extending gains for a fourth straight trading session. According to a Wall Street Journal report cited by ABMedia, the rebound has been supported by three main factors: weaker-than-expected U.S. July ADP private payrolls, easing tensions in the Middle East, and continued official-sector demand in the second quarter. The ADP report showed only 44,000 jobs were added in July, well below market expectations of about 70,000. After the data, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields both weakened, while market bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve increased. Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. At the same time, World Gold Council data showed global central banks bought 289 metric tons of gold in the second quarter, up 62% year over year, with South Korea’s central bank resuming domestic gold purchases for the first time in 13 years. In China, domestic gold ETFs have logged net inflows for 14 straight days, a trend the market has linked in part to July selling in Chinese tech stocks and a shift toward assets seen as free of counterparty risk.1890
gold2026-08-06 14:19:49Gold Hits $4,295, a Seven-Week High, on Weak ADP Data and Hormuz Deal HopesGold climbed to a seven-week high after weak U.S. employment data and signs of a possible agreement tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Spot gold briefly reached $4,295 an ounce before easing to around $4,268 on Thursday. It marked a fourth straight day of gains. ADP said U.S. private-sector hiring slowed sharply in July, with most of the new jobs coming from health care. The softer data lowered expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike, which supports non-yielding bullion. The article also cited IG analyst Tony Sycamore, who said optimism over a near-finalized Middle East diplomatic breakthrough could weigh on oil prices and reduce the need for central banks to raise rates.1930
