The July US nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight at 20:30, and markets are looking for a rebound in hiring. The median expectation is 80,000 new jobs, above June's 57,000 increase, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% on the year and 0.3% on the month. ADP private payrolls, a closely watched signal, rose just 44,000 this week, pointing to a softer picture. A Reuters poll puts the consensus at 80,000, and a separate Dow Jones Newswires and Wall Street Journal survey shows an average estimate of 83,000. Goldman Sachs economists caution that July readings often miss market expectations, and prior months' job growth has been subject to sizable revisions. Behind the stable jobless rate, labor force participation has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. The latest private-sector employment data suggests companies are less eager to hire. Labor market resilience now comes more from supply and demand cooling together than from stronger recruitment.
The July nonfarm payrolls report is due at 20:30 tonight. Markets expect a rebound in new jobs to 80,000, but ADP private payrolls rose by only 44,000 this week. Goldman Sachs economists caution that July data has frequently missed market expectations in recent years.
Reuters data shows economists expect US July nonfarm payrolls to increase by 80,000, above June's 57,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to hold at 3.5% year over year and 0.3% month over month.
A Dow Jones Newswires and Wall Street Journal survey puts the average economist estimate at 83,000 new jobs for July, also higher than the previous month.
Although the market broadly expects July employment growth to improve from June, economists warn the report could still come in below expectations. Goldman Sachs economists note that July nonfarm data has often missed market expectations in recent years, and employment growth from prior months has also shown a tendency for large revisions.
More importantly, behind the stable unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest since 2021. Based on the latest private-sector employment data published this week, corporate hiring appetite is weakening. The resilience of the labor market now looks more like a product of labor supply and demand slowing together, rather than a clear pickup in hiring activity.
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