On-chain data and technical analysis are flashing warning signs simultaneously. According to Coinglass, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index dropped to -0.1011% on May 21, hitting its lowest level since April. The index measures the percentage difference between BTC prices on the US-regulated exchange Coinbase and the global average (e.g., Binance). A negative value indicates selling pressure or capital outflow from the US market. The expanding negative premium clearly shows that US spot investors are not participating in the recent rebound and may be exiting positions. The current price support relies heavily on overseas (especially Asian) buying, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rally without US fund flow.
KillaXBT: Bearish Below $79.1K, Target $74K
The weak on-chain data aligns with bearish technical expectations. Crypto trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted his latest market analysis on X, stating the current market structure looks like a corrective move. “Keep it simple. As long as $BTC stays below $79,100, we are bearish and in the corrective phase,” he said. He noted that his current hedge longs are merely scalp trades to protect his swing shorts, emphasizing the overarching bearish trend remains intact.
Killa set a clear downside target: $74,000 is coming soon. The bearish thesis would be invalidated only if BTC reclaims $81,000. He reminded that markets rarely fall in a straight line, but the risk remains high.
With institutional buying retreating and technical weakness (failure to reclaim key resistance), investors should stay cautious about short-term downside risks and enforce strict risk management.