CoinGlass data shows the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained below zero for 75 consecutive days since May 19, with the latest reading at -0.0959%. That marks the longest continuous negative stretch on record for the indicator.
The previous record lasted 40 days, from Jan. 16 to Feb. 24 this year. The article also cites an earlier run of about 30 days during the October 2025 "1011 crash." A negative reading means BTC is priced lower on Coinbase in the BTC/USD market than on Binance in the BTC/USDT market, a pattern commonly read as weaker U.S. buying interest.
The last move back above zero was followed by a 20% Bitcoin rise
The report places the indicator next to Bitcoin's price action over the same period. The last time the index closed above the zero line was Jan. 15, when Bitcoin closed at $95,551. By Feb. 24, when the previous 40-day negative streak ended, Bitcoin had fallen to $64,080.
From Feb. 24 to May 18, the index hovered around zero and did not turn persistently negative again. Over that span, Bitcoin climbed from $64,080 to $76,954, a 20% increase. The article describes that move as the only meaningful rally so far this year.
Then the index turned negative again on May 19. Since that day, Bitcoin has dropped from $76,751 to $63,078, a decline of 17.8%. At the time described in the report, BTC was trading around $63,000, not far from the $64,080 close recorded on Feb. 24.
CoinDesk noted the same divergence when the previous streak ended
The article says CoinDesk highlighted the setup when the earlier record ended on Feb. 24. At that point, Bitcoin had already rebounded from its February low, but the premium index had not followed, suggesting that buying interest was coming mainly from outside U.S. trading hours.
During the same period, Google search interest in "bitcoin zero" hit a new high in the U.S., while global search volume showed little change.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data points in the same direction
The report cross-checks the premium data against U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Those funds saw net outflows of $2.43 billion in May and another $4.51 billion in June, for a combined two-month outflow of $6.94 billion. July turned positive, but only barely, with net inflows of $205 million, the smallest monthly figure since the products launched in January 2024.
Asset size tells a similar story. Total net assets across the ETF group stood at $77.46 billion on July 29, compared with a peak of about $151 billion in September 2025. The article says July's positive print looked more like stabilization than a return of demand.
What the index can and cannot show
The piece also stresses the indicator's blind spots. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index compares Coinbase BTC/USD order-book pricing with Binance BTC/USDT order-book pricing, so it captures marginal price leadership in public markets.
That leaves out a large share of institutional trading. Large orders are often negotiated over the counter instead of being executed through public order books. ETF creations and redemptions are handled by authorized participants, and a meaningful share of that volume goes through OTC channels and institutional venues such as Coinbase Prime. Those trades do not show up in the order book, so the premium index does not capture them.
For that reason, a negative premium can show that the most aggressive bidding in public markets is not coming from the U.S. It cannot, on its own, be used to conclude that institutions are selling Bitcoin or moving coins off the market.
CryptoQuant analyst says a break above zero is needed for a lasting shift
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci addressed the pattern in early July, according to the article. He said the Coinbase premium indices for both Bitcoin and Ether were still negative, but had rebounded from local lows and moved back above their 14-day moving averages.
Kesmeci said, "This is the reason behind Bitcoin moving from 58,000 to 64,000 and Ether moving from 1,500 to 1,750." He added: "The current picture is a catalyst for a short-term rebound, but for a real long-term structural shift, this indicator needs to break above the zero line."
The article says later price action matched that view. Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $57,747 on July 1 and closed at $66,101 on July 22, confirming a rebound, but the index still never moved above zero.
How the article defines the indicator
As described in the report, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the price gap between Coinbase's dollar pair and Binance's USDT pair. A positive reading usually means Coinbase is quoting higher and U.S. buying is stronger. A negative reading points to relatively weaker bidding from the U.S. side, or heavier selling pressure there.
The article also answers a common question directly: a 75-day negative streak does not automatically mean institutions are selling Bitcoin. The metric reflects only public order-book pricing and does not cover OTC transactions or institutional channels such as Coinbase Prime.