Coinbase said on Oct. 29 that its prediction markets business is generating more than $200 million a year on an annualized basis, while paying Coinbase One memberships climbed 24% from a year earlier to a record high.
The quarter also exposed a wide gap between the company’s two profit measures. Net income was $719 million, compared with adjusted net income of $78 million. During the earnings presentation, Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said net income was driven largely by 「unrealized gains on crypto assets that we hold for investment」. Coinbase had reported a net loss of $359.5 million in the second quarter, according to its earnings deck.
Prediction markets kept expanding
Coinbase said revenue from the product has grown at an 82% compound quarterly rate since launch. Daily prediction traders increased by more than 60% from the second quarter. Haas also said that more than 50% of contracts traded in Q3 were non-sports contracts.
Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said in the same presentation that prediction markets are one of the fastest-growing products by revenue in Coinbase’s history. He added that Coinbase received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, to list its own prediction market contracts, a move he said will 「improve our economics」.
Coinbase One posted a fifth straight quarter of growth
Armstrong said Coinbase One, the paid tier that removes trading fees, has now grown for five consecutive quarters even in tough market conditions. Coinbase said subscribers generate 3.5 times more average revenue per user and maintain balances that are 4.2 times higher than non-subscribers.
Revenue held at $1.2 billion
「The market backdrop was challenging, but the business is healthy,」 Haas said. Coinbase said a 10% decline in crypto trading volume across the market barely affected its top line, which held at $1.2 billion. Its share of crypto trading volume has now increased for four straight quarters, reaching 10.7%.
Adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, up 60% from Q2, and remained positive for a 15th consecutive quarter. Management also lowered its 2026 adjusted expense forecast to a range of $4.15 billion to $4.3 billion.
Subscription and services revenue, which includes stablecoin income, staking rewards, and lending, totaled $570 million. That was 3% higher than in Q2 and accounted for 49% of net revenue. Average USDC balances across Coinbase products reached a record $22 billion.
