A new report from CoinShares argues that the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin is overblown. While some older wallet types could theoretically be exposed, the amount of BTC that could actually shake markets if compromised is small — only about 10,200 BTC sits in addresses large enough to cause disruption. Roughly 1.6–1.7 million BTC exists in older formats that are theoretically vulnerable, but most modern wallets remain protected.
13 Million Qubits Needed to Break Bitcoin
According to the report, breaking Bitcoin’s encryption would require quantum machines with nearly 13 million qubits. Today’s best quantum computers have only a few hundred qubits. Analysts estimate such technology may not arrive until the 2030s, with practical attacks still decades away. The threat is distant, not urgent.
Why Bitcoin’s Security Model Still Works
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve signatures and hashing systems to authorize transactions and secure data. Even if quantum computing advances, it cannot rewrite the fixed 21 million supply, skip proof-of-work, or control the blockchain. Newer address types hide public keys until coins are spent, reducing attack surface. Some reports claim up to 25% of BTC is vulnerable, but CoinShares argues those numbers exaggerate temporary risks that users can avoid by moving funds to safer wallets.
More importantly, the network can upgrade. Developers could introduce post-quantum cryptography via soft forks long before quantum machines become powerful enough.
Disagreement Among Experts on True Exposure
Not everyone accepts the lower-risk view. Joseph Kearney, a researcher focused on quantum computation and blockchain, criticized the idea that the threat is minimal, warning that telling investors machines must be “100,000 times stronger” could mislead. Data from Project Eleven tracker estimates nearly 6.8 million BTC could be theoretically vulnerable under advanced conditions, representing hundreds of billions in exposure. However, “vulnerable” does not mean instantly stealable — many coins are inactive, and any coordinated attack requires breakthroughs that don’t yet exist. This range of estimates shows the threat remains an active debate.
Market Impact Would Be Limited Even in Worst Case
In an extreme scenario, analysts believe only about 10,000 BTC could enter circulation from compromised keys. Compared to daily trading volumes, that resembles normal selling pressure, not a systemic shock. Another key point: if quantum computers become strong enough to crack modern encryption, banks, payment networks, military systems, and secure internet protocols would face threats earlier. Quantum computing is a global cybersecurity issue, not just a crypto problem.