Bernstein: Crypto Stocks Approaching Cyclical Bottom
Wall Street broker Bernstein released a research note on Monday indicating that crypto-linked equities are nearing a cyclical bottom. Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the firm said the combination of macro uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and weak crypto sentiment has pressured valuations, but argued that fundamentals tied to long-term growth themes remain intact. The broker estimates that crypto equities have retraced roughly 60% from their 2025 peak, alongside a broader crypto market correction that erased trillions in value. Bitcoin itself has fallen sharply from record highs, contributing to weaker trading activity and sentiment.
Price Target Cuts with Outperform Ratings Maintained
Bernstein lowered price targets across major names: it cut its target on Coinbase to $330 from $440, Robinhood to $130 from $160, and Figure to $67 from $72. All three remain rated Outperform. The firm views the steep selloff as a potential 'big discount' entry point ahead of first-quarter earnings. Despite the bearish near-term adjustments, the structural growth drivers—stablecoins, tokenization, prediction markets, and derivatives—remain intact. Bernstein noted that crypto exposure represents a smaller share of Robinhood's revenue base, while Figure is positioned as a pure-play tokenization business.
Long-Term Catalysts and Recovery Outlook
Bernstein expects Q1 earnings weakness to mark a sentiment floor before recovery into the second half of 2026. The firm believes that the fundamental themes underpinning the crypto sector—such as the proliferation of stablecoins for payments and DeFi, tokenization of real-world assets, and growing derivatives markets—will reassert themselves once macro headwinds ease. The analyst stressed that investors should view the current downturn as an accumulation opportunity for select crypto stocks with strong market positions and diversified revenue streams.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Geopolitics and Derivatives
Bitcoin traded lower over the weekend after remarks from Donald Trump suggesting the United States is engaged in discussions with a new leadership structure in Iran and progress toward a potential agreement. The moves followed a weekend dip toward $64,000 and reinforced a broader rangebound structure between roughly $65,000 and $70,000. Sentiment was driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified, with strikes on Iranian targets and regional spillovers affecting Kuwait and other Gulf states. Reports of missile and drone activity, risks to energy infrastructure, and threats to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz have kept global markets on edge. U.S. President Donald Trump has alternated between diplomatic signals and severe threats toward Iran's energy infrastructure, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been cited in discussions suggesting regime change dynamics may be emerging, with Pakistan attempting to facilitate indirect talks.
Beyond geopolitics, derivatives positioning has also contributed to muted volatility. Institutional investors selling covered call options have shifted gamma exposure to market makers, whose hedging activity dampens price swings by buying dips and selling rallies. Overall, Bitcoin remains rangebound as markets digest geopolitical risk, options-driven volatility suppression, and macroeconomic uncertainty, while traders await clearer direction from both policy signals and liquidity trends. Institutional positioning continues to offset retail-driven momentum and headline shocks in a tightly controlled trading environment through early spring 2026 cycle period.