The founder of CryptoBoost said in a post that Bitcoin’s current bear market began from its all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025, and had lasted 396 days at the time of writing, slightly longer than the 391-day average it has taken for bear markets to bottom since 2014. He compared the current drawdown with prior cycles, saying the 2014 bear market saw a peak decline of about 86%, 2018 about 84%, and 2022 about 77%, while the current cycle has pulled back roughly 53%, which he described as relatively mild. He said the growing presence of spot ETFs, corporations and funds may have made market positioning more resilient, helping limit the depth of the decline. He also noted that Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate since July. Even so, he said reaching the historical average cycle length does not mean the bear market is over. In his view, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the $80,000 to $82,000 range and hold above it before the market trend can be confirmed further. He also cited recent declines in U.S. tech and semiconductor stocks, a shift of capital toward bank shares, and post-midterm-election moves including a rise in the Dow and lower oil prices as part of the broader backdrop.
According to ChainCatcher, the founder of CryptoBoost said in a post that Bitcoin’s current bear market started from its all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025, and had lasted 396 days at the time of writing. That is slightly above the 391-day average time it has taken for bear markets to bottom since 2014.
He compared the current drawdown with previous cycles. The 2014 bear market saw a maximum decline of about 86%, the 2018 cycle about 84%, and the 2022 cycle about 77%. In the current cycle, the drawdown is about 53%, which he described as relatively mild.
He said the increase in institutional participants, including spot exchange-traded funds, companies and funds, may have made market positioning more stable and reduced the scale of the decline. He also said Bitcoin whales have continued accumulating since July.
At the same time, he said reaching the historical average cycle length does not mean the bear market has ended. Bitcoin still needs to move back above the $80,000 to $82,000 range and stay there before the market trend can be confirmed further.
He also pointed to recent declines in U.S. technology and semiconductor stocks, capital rotating into bank shares, and market changes after the U.S. midterm elections, including gains in the Dow and falling oil prices. Against that backdrop, he said Wall Street fund flows remain unclear and Bitcoin may be near the end of its bear-market cycle.
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