CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin closed October lower for a second consecutive year, extending a break from the market’s long-running "Uptober" narrative. According to Adler, BTC fell 7.2% in October this year after declining 3.8% in the same month last year. The pullback came after gains of 25% in August and 6.4% in September, meaning the earlier rebound did not carry through into October.
Adler also pointed to the Oct. 29 theft involving Binance hot wallet assets as an overhang on the market during the month. He said the incident resulted in roughly $6.3 billion in losses, while Binance said the losses would be covered by its SAFU fund and corporate funds. In Adler’s view, the impact of the event should be judged not only by the amount stolen, but also by its effect on participant confidence and market liquidity.
Even so, he said the market response has remained relatively restrained. Despite the large-scale theft, Bitcoin has stayed near its annual moving average. Adler contrasted that with the aftermath of the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin dropped 23% in a single week.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin ended October in the red for a second straight year, extending a setback for the market’s so-called "Uptober" pattern.
He said Bitcoin fell 7.2% in October this year, compared with a 3.8% decline in the same month last year. Before that, Bitcoin had risen 25% in August and 6.4% in September, but the rebound did not continue and seasonal expectations for October gains failed again.
Binance hot wallet theft weighed on the month
Adler said the Oct. 29 theft involving Binance hot wallet assets cast a shadow over the market during the month. The incident caused about $6.3 billion in losses, and Binance said it would cover the losses through its SAFU fund and company funds.
He said the impact should not be measured only by the amount stolen. It should also be assessed through the hit to market participant confidence and liquidity.
Reaction remains more restrained than during the FTX collapse
Even so, Adler said the market reaction has been relatively restrained. Despite the large-scale theft, Bitcoin has remained near its annual moving average.
For comparison, after the FTX collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin fell 23% in one week.
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