CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D said Bitcoin fell from a local high of $87,027 on Oct. 5 to a low of $80,404 on Oct. 9, marking a drawdown of about 7.61%. He said that decline is close to the 7.58% average pullback seen in the 2022-2025 bull-market cycle, while still below the broader historical average drawdown of 14.39% in his dataset. Using Bitcoin bull-market cycle drawdown data, MAC_D compared declines from local highs across several past cycles. The average pullbacks for 2010-2011, 2011-2013, 2015-2017, and 2018-2021 were 18.41%, 21.71%, 10.93%, and 19.39%, respectively. Based on that comparison, he said the latest cycle’s pullback has been relatively mild. MAC_D added that if the 14.39% historical average drawdown were applied to Bitcoin’s recent high, the implied price would be about $74,500, which he said could serve as a reference level if the market moves lower. He also said investors could consider gradually accumulating BTC near $80,000 and increase buying in the $74,000 to $75,000 range.
According to BlockBeats, CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D said on Oct. 9 that Bitcoin dropped from a local high of $87,027 on Oct. 5 to a low of $80,404 on Oct. 9, a pullback of about 7.61%.
He said that figure is close to the 7.58% average drawdown recorded during the 2022-2025 bull-market cycle, and still below the broader historical average pullback of 14.39% in his statistics.
Comparison with prior bull-market cycles
Using a Bitcoin bull-market cycle drawdown indicator, MAC_D compared declines from local highs across several past cycles. The average pullbacks were 18.41% for 2010-2011, 21.71% for 2011-2013, 10.93% for 2015-2017, and 19.39% for 2018-2021.
Based on those figures, he said the latest cycle’s pullback has been relatively mild.
Reference level from the historical average
MAC_D said that if the 14.39% historical average drawdown is applied to Bitcoin’s recent high, the corresponding price would be about $74,500. He said that level could be used as a reference if the market moves lower.
He also said investors could consider gradually accumulating BTC near $80,000 and step up buying in the $74,000 to $75,000 range.
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