Bitcoin is approaching one full year without setting a fresh all-time high, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who said the gap since the last peak now stands at roughly 342 days. In his view, that marks a clear break from earlier market cycles, when Bitcoin tended to reach new highs relatively quickly after a halving.
Darkfost said the current cycle is moving at a slower pace than the old template would suggest. The next halving is expected around April 2028, but he argued that investors may not need to wait for that event or keep relying on the idea that Bitcoin should break higher soon after each halving.
He also pointed to a separate pattern in the data: the time between one cycle top and the next all-time high has been getting shorter. That span measured 1180 days in 2014–2017, 1094 days in 2017–2020, and 849 days in 2021–2024. Based on that progression, Darkfost said that even though Bitcoin has spent almost a year below its previous high in this cycle, a new high could still arrive sooner than older cycle models imply.
Bitcoin is close to going a full year without posting a new all-time high, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. He said the time since the last peak is now about 342 days, putting the market near the one-year mark.
This cycle has slowed after the halving
Darkfost said earlier Bitcoin cycles typically saw the asset return to new highs relatively quickly after a halving. In the current cycle, that pattern appears to be losing strength and the pace has slowed. The next halving is estimated to take place around April 2028.
The gap from one top to the next new high has been shrinking
He also highlighted another cycle pattern: the time from the previous market top to the next all-time high has actually been getting shorter. That interval was 1180 days from 2014 to 2017, 1094 days from 2017 to 2020, and 849 days from 2021 to 2024.
Based on that trend, Darkfost argued that even though Bitcoin has now spent nearly a year without breaking above its previous high, the next all-time high could still come sooner than many older cycle frameworks would suggest. In his view, the old assumption that Bitcoin should hit a new high shortly after each halving is no longer reliable, and the market may not need to wait until 2028 for that to happen.
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