According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin may form a bottom near $53,600. That level represents Bitcoin’s current realized price, defined in the report as the on-chain average cost basis of all market participants. CryptoQuant used this figure as a reference point for assessing the current downturn and compared it with the way Bitcoin has behaved during previous major bear-market cycles.
Realized price as a bear-market reference
The report noted that in past major bear markets, Bitcoin has typically bottomed near its realized price or slightly below that level. In the current cycle, Bitcoin had previously fallen to around $59,000, marking a new bear-market low. That price was about 9% above the $53,600 realized-price level. Bitcoin later recovered to approximately $62,150.
CryptoQuant emphasized, however, that Bitcoin’s demand environment remains “extremely unfavorable.” The report stated that a genuine bull-market recovery would require a clear rebound in demand, and that current on-chain data has not yet shown that this condition has emerged. As a result, while realized price offers a historical reference zone, the report continues to focus on whether demand conditions improve.