Bitcoin has received a fresh on-chain boost after months of consolidation and macro uncertainty. According to CryptoQuant, its widely followed Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has exited bear market territory for the first time since March 2023, shifting into what the firm describes as an “early bull” phase. The change is being watched closely as a potential sign that market structure is improving.
An early bull signal, but not a guarantee
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno said the move has historically marked an important regime shift. In past cycles, when the indicator left bear territory and entered an early bull zone, it often suggested that the worst part of the correction had already passed and that the market was beginning to recover. He also pointed to the recovery in the 30-day moving average as evidence that underlying momentum may be strengthening.
Still, Moreno cautioned against treating the signal as definitive. While similar green readings in 2019 and early 2023 were followed by strong upside, the same indicator produced a false positive in March 2022, before Bitcoin moved lower again. That makes the latest reading more useful as a structural clue than as a guaranteed trading trigger.
$82,000 remains the key test for bulls
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan took a cautiously constructive view. He said the indicator can help identify when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset, but it should not be confused with a predictive “crystal ball.” In his view, a true bullish confirmation still requires sustained demand, ample liquidity, and market acceptance at higher price levels.
Price action reflects that tension. Bitcoin has rebounded about 35% from its $60,000 low in February, yet it has repeatedly failed to secure a decisive move above $82,000. That suggests overhead resistance remains strong even as on-chain conditions improve. Moreno added that the market still needs to overcome signs of fatigue, especially with sentiment gauges sitting in neutral territory and macro conditions remaining complex.
Hayes says $90,000 could trigger an explosive move
While analysts stress caution, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has taken a much more aggressive stance. He argues that Bitcoin already established its cycle bottom near $60,000 earlier this year and sees $90,000 as the next major trigger point for the market.
According to Hayes, a successful breakout above $90,000 could turn the rally “explosive” and send Bitcoin toward its previously cited high target of $126,000. At the same time, AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes noted that on-chain metrics such as MVRV and NUPL were never designed to serve as precise trading signals. Instead, they are better understood as behavioral frameworks for locating Bitcoin within a broader liquidity cycle. For now, the message from the market is mixed: on-chain structure is improving, but a stronger bull case still depends on whether Bitcoin can clear major resistance.